Can Anyone Beat Lexington?

Three days to the State Div I meet and I've been trying to analyze the team competitions. Without yet knowing who will be competing in each event, it looks to me like the Lexington boys have the best chance of dethroning two-time defending champs Newton North, and for the girls, any one of the teams from Acton-Boxboro, New Bedford, Newton South, Newton North, or Lincoln-Sudbury could win.

Boys Team Preview

Lexington seems to have the right mix of star power and team depth to overcome Newton North and Xaverian this year. Willi Ballenthin is the favorite in the 1000, while teammate Bryan Longo will score well in the 1000 or 1 Mile, depending on which he decides to run. Meikle Paschal will score points in the HJ and in either the 300 or 600, and the Minutemen also have Darius Walker, the State's 2nd-ranked 55-meter dash man. Finally, Lexington has two strong relays -- their 4x200 and their 4x800. I project them at around 50 points.

Xaverian will be strong, as always, with junior Mark Amirault pretty much a sure thing in whatever distance event he runs. The X-men should also get points from Bill Stillman in the HJ (and maybe the hurdles), from Alex Bleday in the 1000, and from their very strong 4x800 team. The mystery man for Xaverian is senior Chris Fox, who has not been up to his junior year standard. I project Xaverian at around 40 points.

Newton North could also put up a lot of points with David Polgar in the mile, Noah Jampol in the 1000, David Smith in the SP, Brendan Rooney in the 55 hurdles, and sprinters Cailean Robinson and Gordon Forbes in the 55 dash. The Tigers could also pick up points in the 4x200 and 4x800 relays. I project them at about 34 points.

New kid on the block this year is Methuen, which just might challenge the big three schools above. Not only does Methuen have the state's top-ranked shot putter, they have a very good miler in Chris Forbes, a decent 600 man in Erik Gonzalez, and depth for the 4x400 and 4x800 relay teams. I'm going to project Methuen at 30 points.

Girls Team Preview

For the girls, Acton-Boxboro is strong in the 55 dahs and 55 hurdles, has very good 4x200 and 4x400 relay teams, and the top long jumper in the state after Medford's Aranxta King. I project them scoring about 34 points, which could be enough to win the Division I title.

Newton South looks to get big points from freshman and Coaches Elite Meet Mile champion Bridget Dahlberg, while also having senior Anja Hergreuter score in the both the HJ and 55 hurdles. Newton South is always dangerous in the 4x800 Relay and looks to be in the top three there. I project them around 30 points.

New Bedford has the top-ranked 55 hurdler in Division I, a very good sprinter in the 55 dash, the 3rd-ranked long-jumper, and also a very fast 4x200 team. I project them at 28 points.

Newton North doesn't have the dominant team of last year, but Jess Barton is the favorite to win the two-mile and Haleigh Smith shuld also score points in that event. Kat Chiong has been closing the gap on the State's top 600 runners and should score in that event, and the 4x400 relay team looks very strong. Julie Blanchard is still questionable for running the 300 (which requires trials and finals), and might simply concentrate on the relay. Leah Weisman could finish in the top six in the 55 hurdles, but that still only projects to about 26 points for the Tigers.

Along with Newton South, Lincoln-Sudbury moves up to Division I this year and tries to make its mark right away. The Warriors have the top-ranked 4x800 team, scoring threats in the 55 hurdles, 4x200, and 2-mile. I project them at 22 points.

I'll update these predictions when the meet entries come out in Thursday.