Every year I do a projection of team scores based ONLY on seed marks, not on what I think might happen. In some cases, I might adjust the projected scores if I know for a fact that someone listed in the top six in an individual event isn't running that event. But I find that these "naive" projections are often fairly close to the real scores. Without further ado, here are the numbers and a few comments:
Girls Teams
Acton-Boxboro 50
Linc-Sudbury 33
New-Bedford 32
Andover 22
Bridge-Rayn 21
Cambridge 21
Haverhill 21
Newton North 21
Newton South 21
Medford 20
It looks like it's A-B's meet to lose, but actually their score will likely be lower. A-B has two highly-seeded relay teams, but their top 200/400 runner can only compete in one of the two.
It should be pointed out that some of the teams in the logjam of 21 points have significant upside potential and some don't. Cambridge is very unlikely to score more than 21 points, but Newton North, which has more people competing, could easily quite a bit more than 21.
Boys Teams
Lexington 61
Xaverian 37
Andover 35
Newton North 29
Linc-Sudbury 28
SJP 28
Brookline 27
Methuen 26
Brockton 23
This is Lexington's year. Unless something happens to Meikle Paschal or Darius Walker, Lexington will dominate this meet. After that. Xaverian looks like the strong runner-up. Watch out for St. John's Prep moving up. My gut, as well as my memory of over-achieving SJP teams from past years makes me think they will do very well at this meet. Newton North is going to struggle to score 29 points, but great performances in the dash and in the 4x200 could make it happen. It's kind of surprising to see Brookline so high up there, but if Matt Stewart wins or finishes second in the 600, and if their two milers can score big points against what looks like a weak field, that's 22-26 points right there. Andover is kind of a mystery to me. I don't think they're quite as good as their projected score. A lot of their points come from the 300 (18 points - I doubt that will happen!) and the 4x200 and 4x400 relays, and if they have two runners who run prelims and finals in the 300, I would expect that will weaken their 4x200, 4x400 or both. I would guess they actually score closer to 25 points.
Can't wait for the meet!
1 comment:
That's a tad pessimistic on our chances: Give 8 to Polgar in the Mile which he can/should get, 8 for Smitty same deal, add in 2 sprinter who if you give 3'rd and fourth earn 10 points, that right there is 28. Then you have the relays which should provide something now that Avery's back and the 4x8 better score that's all I'll say. Outside shots at pts. are Rooney & Gordon.
Post a Comment