Boys All-State Preview:
There will be a boys Div I team champion in 2005: The defending champs, Newton North, failed to qualify for the All-State meet. The heir apparent seems to be Brockton, the EMass Div I champions and the runners-up in the 2004 EMass championships and in the 2004 State meet in Gardner.
But is it a foregone conclusion that Brockton will win? What about Brookline and their 35-second spread from first to fifth? What about Mansfield, who went 1-2-3 in the EMass Div. II meet. What about St. John's from Central Mass.? What about Amherst, who won the Western Mass meet at Northfield Mountain?
And how will Dave Polgar and Doug Brecher fare as individuals against statewide competition?
Before I share my predictions, let me say that comparing the results from various meets in XC is exceedingly difficult. Eastern Mass. and Western Mass. championships are held on 5K courses, but the Western Mass. course is much harder. On the other hand, the mud at Franklin Park last Saturday definitely affected times. And the Central Mass. course is only 2.9 Miles. To compare results in a meaningful way, I went back to 2002, the last year that featurd this same arrangement of meets (same locations for EMass, Central Mass, and Western Mass; State meet at Franklin Park). I then compared average times for the top teams at each of their regional meets to the average times they recorded at Franklin Park at the State Meet. I then applied a "coure condition" factor to try to take into account the generally poor conditions of certain course on certain days. Finally, I combined all of this year's regional meet results into one, threw out the individuals (who don't score) and counted the finishers for each team (who do score).
I concluded that two teams stand above the rest: Amherst and Brockton, with Amherst holding a slight edge. After that, another three teams are very close: St. John's, Brookline, and Mansfield, with St. John's the most likely to nab the 3rd spot. Her are the numbers:
1. Amherst 95
2. Brockton 101
3. St. John's 121
4. Brookline 138
5. Mansfield 144
Of course, there will be teams that over-achieve and under-achieve. It will be interesting to see how close these predictions are to reality at the end of the day Saturday!
As for the individual race, there it's much easier to be swayed by knowledge of the individuals involved. It looks like Steve Czupryna has the fastest time of any of the major contenders in Div. I, with Mark Amirault next, and Dave Polgar 3rd. However, the EMass runners are probably not going to repeat the slow, tactical opening mile of last Saturday's race. I would look for Brockton's Kevin Gill and Jose DePina to be much more aggressive. Here's how I predict the finish of Div I
1. Steve Czupryna Chicopee Comp.
2. Mark Amirault Xaverian
3. David Polgar Newton North
4. Kevin Gill Brockton
5. Ryan Collins Mansfield
Others close to the front: Jose DePina (Brockton), Robert Gibson (Brookline), Andrew Mulvaney (South Hadley), Adrian Kun (St. John's), Blake Marcus (Amherst), Matias Carrasco (Brookline)
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7 comments:
this is peter
Jon, I heard that you weren't going to coach anymore? or is it just for indoor season?
Hey Jon,
So freaked out as I am by this Chyzuprena guy, I did some research and I found the following:
104 Steve Czupryna 10 Chicopee Comp 18:23.29
This was from States at Northfield Mountain from two years ago. Ankit ran 18:05-ish on that course, not to degragate Ankit or anything but just so that you have an estimate as to where to place that time when thinking about this. My question is whether or not the course was the same this year as it was then, since his time would have earned him around 6th place or so, with people like Barnicle, Gras, Gill, Banks, and Morris. How can this be??
Who cares what he ran two years ago? Beard was 34'th in our league meet last year, and now he's 14'th in all of Class B this year. Drastic improvement is possible. That kid's fast, don't underestimate him because he might not be so naturally talented.
More results for Steve Czupryna at Northfield Mtn:
As a freshman (2002):
18:14.0
As a soph (2003):
17:40
As a junior:
17:27 (in the snow)
(Also finished right ahead of Dan Chebot at the 2004 State Meet)
As a senior:
16:21.52 (at Northfield Mtn)
(Also 15:43 for 5K at Westfield)
Beard was 14th with a time of 17:12, which would have earned him 37th place in Class A this year. In 2003 in class B he ran 19:23.20, which is a 2 minute and 11 second improvement on the Franklin park course compared to his time this year. If I remember correctly, the course was in similar conditions both times. Czupryna improved 2 minutes on the Northfield Mountain course!! That's like PR-ing in the mile by seven minutes...it's HUGE!! And the major difference between the two of them is that Beard's 17:12, although impressive, does not put him anywhere even NEAR the Barnicle league of low 15s, whereas the 16:20 of Czupryna puts him right into that mix.
Another thing is that the Northfield Mountain course was altered and yet another short little steep hill was added to the end two years ago for whatever reason when I raced there, and my question originally was aimed at figuring out whether or not another course alteration had been made since then. Nobody said anything about underestimating anyone or who's fast and who's not or who's got "natural" talent or whatever except for you.
Just because I've already gotten these numbers I'm going to write them here for y'all to see. In 2004:
34 #299 Beard, Charles Needham HS 17:18.42
In 2005:
7 Beard, Charles
Needham 16:14.00
Great improvement!! But going by the times that Chyzuprena had run he should have been around 15:10 or so, which is where Barnicle was the last time he ran it...and Chris tempo-ed that one and paced me for a portion of it. Czupryna ran:
30 Czupryna, Steve Chicopee Compreh 15:09
at Gardner last year, where Chris ran 14:09. Draw your own conclusions but I think it was a different course this year at Northfield Mountain. Ideas??
Superior Example of Extreme Improvement:
2005: Class D meet: 1 1 2810 Patrick McAllister JR Marian 16:19 5:16
last year what did he run you might ask?
14 #646 McAllister, Pat 10 MARIAN-FRAM 18:15 13
-2004 class D in snow give him 50 seconds and it's still over a minute of improvement in one year
-Looks like he jumped into Kevin Gill/De pina/Gill territiory awfully fast, you don't have to be beastly as a sophomore to reach a certain level, pretty sure it was the same course....
Whatever beat the kid tomorrow?
The same Northfield course has been run since at least 2000 when I began running xc as a frosh. Czupryna has improved 2 mins since freshman year(18:15 as a frosh and a lousy race at All-States soph yr). What's so crazy about that? He's always had great talent, its just that he finally put some base in and had a quality coach. Those two aspects alone can knock 2 mins off.
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