Who's Running What?

Yesterday was the deadline for the Mass. Class Meet entries, and that means athletes are now locked into their events through the State Meet. Until the performance lists come out on Wednesday or Thursday, we can (and will!) indulge in wild speculation about who's running what, and how those choices will affect individual and team chances.

First of all, let's talk about the boys distance events. The annual problem for good mile/2-mile types is that the 4x800 comes so soon after the 2-mile that it makes doubling almost impossible. That's why Chris Barnicle didn't run his signature event indoors until his senior year (when he was able to do the impossible). Who is in that situation this year? Well, it seems certain that Mark Amirault will run the mile, giving the top-ranked runner from Xaverian plenty of time to double back in the 4x800. Same goes for Polgar, and probably for Brockton's Kevin Gill, although after he ran a 9:31 (second in the state), Gill could conceivably be headed for the deuce. It seems very likely that Catholic Memorial's Matt Dewey will run the 2-mile, since he doesn't have a relay team to worry about.

Then there are the 1000/1-mile guys, and that would include Lexington's Willi Ballenthin (ranked 2nd behind Amirault) and Bryan Longo (ranked 4th). I'm guessing Ballenthin stays in the 1000 and Longo moves up to the mile. Then there's Whitman-Hanson's Eric Ashe, who is ranked 4th in the mile and 10th in the 1000. It would seem he has better chances in the mile, but the kid can drop a couple of seconds in the 1000 and be right in it for the top three. Haverhill's Pat Fullerton also has excellent chances in both, but with the state's 3rd best time in the mile, it would make sense for him to go there. Xaverian's Alec Bleday will stay in the 1000, I think, as well as Attleboro's Matt Brousseau and Reading's Sam Horn.

So is the mile going to be the stacked event? It looks that way, but then that kind of thinking might convince a couple of "sure-thing" milers to move up or down. For example, what if Methuen's Chris Forbes (ranked 8th in the mile at 4:23.22) moved up to the 2-mile in an attempt to steal some big points for Methuen? Would it kill their 4x800 team?

In the shorter events, what will Lexington's Meikle Paschal do? With the state's 3rd best time in the 300, he could choose that event, but then he has to run trials and (presumably) finals while squeezing in the high jump. If he runs the 600 instead, he might well be able to get his jumping done before the 600 final. That's what Jed Carpenter did last year. Furthermore, Paschal could actually win the 600. I think it makes sense to move him there, as Lexington maximizes points for the State Championship. Milton's Eric Wornum will probably opt for the 300, rather than the dash (where he's ranked 4th), opening things up a little bit for Newton North's duo of Gordon Forbes and Cailean Robinson.

In the girls distance events, there has to be a lot of head-scratching going on to figure out what to make of the mile. After 7 girls ran under 5:10 in one meet, the mile looks like a dangerous event. Let us assume that Colleen Wetherbee will run and win the 1000, her specialty. Then who stays in the mile and who moves up to the 2-mile? Or does anyone actually move DOWN to the 1000? I am going to guess that Emily Jones (Bromfield) and Bridget Dahlberg (Newton South) stay in the mile because both schools have a lot riding on the success of their 4x800 teams. I think Stephanie Pancoast will move up to the 2-mile, as will Brielle Chabot, who is clearly stronger at the longer event. Haverhill's Colleen McNaughton will probably stay in the mile to give Haverhill's 4x800 team a better chance. I have no idea what Winchester's Katharina Eidmann will do, but she might move up as well, making the 2-mile (not the mile) the stronger event at the State meet. One beneficiary would be Weymouth's Becca McDonald, who likely will stay with the mile.

It will be interesting, to say the least, to see how this plays out on Thursday.