How Good is Natick?

Although there is a meet Friday against Milton, the meet next Tuesday against Natick looms as much more important for the fortunes of both the boys and girls teams. For one thing, the Natick meet will be the first (of only two) on Newton's home course this year. For another, both the boys and girls races against Natick will be competitive, which will not be the case at Milton. Finally, we'll get to see Natick's dynamic duo of Rebecca White and Anya Price, who ran very fast times against Brookline on Tuesday and will push Jess Barton in what should be one of the best match-ups of the season.

So how good is Natick?

In the Tuesday meet at Brookline, White, a sophomore, set a girls course record, finishing the mountainous 2.76-mile course in 18:11, breaking the record held by Brielle Chabot of Wellesley. Chabot, you might remember, finished second in the Bay State meet to Barton last year by only a few seconds. In the Spring she won the New England 2-mile championship. Her record at Larz Anderson was not soft! Finishing second at Brookline was Natick junior Anya Price in 18:28. Both Natick runners were over a minute ahead of two very solid Brookline girls. Wow!

But after the top two, the rest of the Natick pack was well back. Here are Natick's top five from the meet:

1. White      N   18:11
2. Price      N   18:28
5. Panek      N   20:25
7. Shaffer    N   21:12
8. Seymour    N   21:14

That's a two-minute gap to their #3, and a three-minuute gap to their #4-5! Gaps like that are a big problem in cross-country, and present an opportunity for a team like Newton to make hay, regardless of what happens at the front of the race.

A plausible scenario for the meet is that Barton wins, White and Price finish 2nd and 3rd, and Haleigh Smith finishes 4th (I personally think she can beat Price, but I'll be conservative here). That would leave the teams equal after the top four finishers. Can Newton place Barnicle, Ranti, Hemley-Bronstein, and Godenzi in front of Natick's third runner? It's hard to tell based on the times from Larz Anderson. In the last five years, I can't remember a meet there where the Newton grils ran anything close to all-out, so it's difficult to compare times. Looking at boys times for that course, it seems that converting from Larz Anderson times to Cold Springs times you add about 30-50 seconds. If that's true, then Natick's #3 runner ran the equivalent of 21 minutes at Cold Springs. That will be fast enough to put the pressure on Newton's pack!

For the boys, the Natick team isn't nearly as impressive. Their top runner ran just under 17 minutes at Larz Anderson after "going out too fast" in the words of a Brookline runner. Seb should be able to ran better than that, so has to be considered the favorite to win. After their first, there is a 90-second gap back to their 5th, and Newton's newfound depth in spots 2-6 should carry the day against the Natick squad. With the added advantage of running on their home course, I expect the boys to pick up a nice win against a decent team.

One factor that might affect times is the weather, which is expected to be quite warm over the weekend and into next week. It will be a shame if heat affects what otherwise could be a record-setting day for the girls.