On Thursday the Newton North girls team takes on Wellesley with Bay State supremacy and an undefeated season at stake. Like the Boys meet, this one will be close, with North holding a slight edge on paper. Both teams have outstanding distance squads, and depth throughout. Here are my observations and predictions about how the meet might go.
1M: Last week, Wellesley's Anna Lukes and Anna Stoebel ran 5:34 and 5:35, respectively, and looked like they could go much faster if pushed from the gun. Immediately this raises a strategic issue for both teams: where to use their best distance runners? Will North use Carolyn Ranti or Nora Barnicle in the 1000? Will Jess Barton run the 1M? What about Marlis Gnirke? Really, it's a chess game to figure out how to deploy runners for the most points. I'll assume Barton runs and wins the mile and Wellesley stands pat with the same two. My prediction: 5-4 Newton.
1000m: I'm guessing it will be Ranti and Barnicle vs. Gnirke. Ranti has been running so well that I think she has to be the favorite. Barnicle could be second, but I'll give Gnirke the nod based on her 3:11 from January 11th. My prediction: 6-3 Newton.
600m: This is a tough event for Wellesley because they have a lot of talent and several girls capable of sub 1:45, but they have to go up against Kat Chiong and Emma Kornetsky. I think it will be close, but Newton will prevail. If Wellesley does manage a win, or even a second-pace, it's an important point swing for them. My prediction: 8-1 Newton.
300m: Having Lily Brown back is a huge plus for Newton, but Katie Pratt has run 43.3 and is the clear favorite. My prediction: 6-3 Wellesley.
55 dash: Frankly, I have no idea how the dash will go. Both teams have multiple runners under 8.00. Newton's Arie Sanchez ran 7.79 last week, but isn't a sure thing by any means. This event could be a big swing for either team. My prediction: 5-4 Newton.
55 hurdles: Newton's trip of Michelle Kaufman, Morgan Faer, and Vicki Marone are going to be hard to beat. Wellesley's Abby King has run 9.83, but she'll need to run a nearly perfect race to break into the top three. My prediction: 8-1 Newton.
2M: Again, the results could depend on how each team chooses to use its runners, but assuming that there are no big changes from previous weeks, it should be another dandy battle between North's Adina Hemley-Bronstein and Franca Godenzi, and Wellesley's Faith Richardson, who could win, place, or show. And let's not forget about North freshman Susannah Gleason who is more than capable of cracking the top three. My prediction: 6-3 Newton
SP: Wellesley's Wendy West threw the shot 29' last week. She'll need a great throw on Thursday to break up Newton's threesome of Lily Brown, Morgan Faer, and Tracy Isman, all of whom have thrown over 30' It's a tall order. My prediction: 8-1 Newton.
HJ: Hannah Muir jumped 5-5 last week. She's the odd-on favorite to win, and I'm guessing Wellesley will come up with someone else to get third. My prediction: 6-3 Wellesley.
That would leave the score 51-30 in favor of the Tigers, but a word of caution: many of these events are very close, and there could easily be swings of 8 points in some events. The meet FEELS a lot closer than the score, which reflects the closeness of many of the events. This closeness is probably reflected in the relay, as well, since both teams have excellent times, with Wellesley holding a slight edge.
It should be a great meet. Good luck to all competitors!
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4 comments:
Richardson won't be doing any running for quite awhile -
Stress fracture.
W is working those young ones way too hard
I'm very sorry to hear about Richardson's injury. She is a great talent, as her cross-country season showed and I wish her a complete recovery in time for the spring season.
I also have to take exception to the comment about working the young ones too hard. It's irresponsible and unfair to blame the Wellesley coaching staff for such an injury. I'm sure they are extremely concerned and careful about the health of their runners.
I considered not responding at all or emailing directly to not seem confrontational but Jon, your response stuck with me.
You say you are "sure they are careful" and I have to ask how are you "sure" ?
I see the miles and the workouts given those young runners. Its not exactly like sharing a football playbook but I'd be a little surprised if the Wellesley coaches shared their workout plans with you ?
This wasn't the first or the 2nd or even the 3rd serious injury to
one of their very best runners over the last 2-3 yrs.
(Serious as defined by missing more than a season), while I'm not aware of similar probs with the young Newton runners. "Aware" as a result of watching BayState meets and not seeing your top runners MIA. I've coached and to be honest if my runners are missing seasons due to such injuries I most certainly would be blaming myself. Who else would I blame? the runner? Jon, from what I've seen and heard - if you had similar experiences I believe you would blame yourself and probably adjust your training load.
I understand the inclination to maybe stand up for a fellow coach or staff but I keep coming back to that statement - how are you sure?
I can see on the surface how you would think the statement was unfair but if a 13 yr old with limted running background was given 60 mi/wk, would that be careful ?
What about 40mi/wk ? What about 10+ milers for girls who hadn't run half that before?
I hope I've come across respectfully, yet still making my point
Thank you for the comment, anonymous. I would like to know who you are and discuss this further. If you want to reveal yourself and continue the conversation, please email me at jwwaldron (at) comcast (dot) net.
FWIW, I think your comment was respectful and not at all confrontational.
I admit that I have no inside knowledge about the Wellesley program, and though I chat with at least one of their coaches from time to time, they certainly don't share their workouts with me. So no, I'm not sure they aren't working their athletes too hard.
But then, I'm not sure I know whether I'm working MY athletes too hard.
My response to your first comment was based on my feeling that it is neither fair or responsible to state a direct connection between a single injury and a bad training philosophy. I did reflexively defend the Wellesley coaching staff, because I felt you were doing just that.
But your second comment adds quite a bit of information. You seem to know much more about how certain athletes are training, and you are suggesting there is a larger pattern. However, the premise still makes me very uncomfortable. Here's why:
As a coach, I feel very exposed to criticism of this sort. I do blame myself for every injury suffered by runners in my care. Most recently, one of the runners under my care suffered a stress fracture at the end of the XC season. I have asked myself a hundred times whether I should have done something differently with her training, or seen the problem coming before it happened. I can tell you that even though I was "extremely concerned and careful," one of my runners suffered a serious injury. I can't tell you how painful it would be for someone to casually suggest that I was working my runners way too hard.
You pose what is perhaps a rhetorical question about having a 13-year old running 60 miles a week, and I would agree that that is far, far too much. But is that really what is going on?
I guess for me the main issue is that I feel enormously uncomfortable with discussion of such sensitive concerns on a public web site.
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