Kaki Takes Aim At 1000m Record

On Saturday Eugene, Oregon hosts the 36th Prefontaine Classic at Hayward Field. The meet will be part of IAAF's Diamond League series of world-class meets, and NBC is scheduled to cover portions of the meet live, beginning at 1:30 p.m. Pacific time. We can only hope that the coverage is not too dreadful.

The distance events are absolutely loaded with talent. The Bowerman mile is set to feature seven of the top ten milers in the world this year, and the top four from last year's world championships. The 5000m is also deep, and everyone is waiting to see whether Chris Solinsky can scare Bernard Lagat's new American record. Suddenly, anything less than sub-13:00 for the top American seems pretty routine. How things have changed in a year!

But just as intriguing was the announcement from Sudan's Abubaker Kaki that he will be attempting to improve on Noah Ngeny's 11-year-old world record of 2:11.96 in the 1000m. The 21-year-old Kaki recently ran 1:42.23 in Oslo to become the fifth fastest two-lap runner in history. In that race, he was edged out by Kenya's David Rudisha, who ran 1:42.04.

According to a story in the Eugene Register-Guard, the plan is for OTC Elite’s Matt Scherer to set a pace of 1:18 through the first 600 meters, and for Khadevis Robinson to bring Kaki through 800 in 1:45. Kaki's coach is quoted as saying about the record attempt that “If anybody has a chance, it’s Kaki. Once he ran 1:42, we realized he’s in better shape than we thought, and he’s going to go for it. He will be blazing from the very start.”

I don't want to be a wet blanket, but I think Kaki's chances are remote. For one thing, the best 1000m times have generally come from runners who were among the best in the world at the 1500/mile. Seb Coe, who held the record prior to Ngeny for nearly two decades was a double gold medalist at 1500 and had a 3:29 1500 and 3:47 1500 to his credit. Ngeny is the second fastest miler in history, having run 3:43.40 behind Hicham El Gerrouj's world record. Next on the list and the only other man to run faster than 2:13 is Steve Cram, who owns a 3:46 mile and 3:29 1500. Although one could argue that Kaki could run a great 1500/mile if he focused on it, the fact remains that his lifetime best at the 1500 is 3:39.71.

The point is that it takes a great deal of speed endurance to extend a 1:45 800m by another 200m at sub-27s pace. Kaki's 800 PR is still nearly half a second slower than Coe's, and he has nothing like Coe's endurance. As for Ngeny, well, he didn't run the 800 often and his PR was only 1:44.49 but he had superb speed endurance over 1500 and 2000 meters.

The other thing that occurs to me is that Kaki seems to be setting up the race to be a relatively even-paced effort. But if the splits quoted above are accurate, they'll be fatal to any record attempt. If the pace through 600m is 1:18 (26s per 200) and the pace through 800 is 1:45 (27s), I think there's no way Kaki will speed up in the final 200m. Both Coe and Ngeny set their records by going out hard and hanging on -- relying on their superior ability to maintain pace, rather than counting on a late acceleration that is virtually impossible at those speeds.

Here's YouTube video of Ngeny's world record. The pacemaker hits 49.66 for 400m, approx 1:17 for 600m, and Ngeny goes through 800m at 1:44.62, then holds on with a 27.34. I might add that if this whole discussion seems a bit dry and academic, watch the video and appreciate how fast 50s/1:17 pace really is!



In Coe's world record from 1981, he also went out very fast. I've been searching for his splits from that race and haven't found them, but I remember reading that after a fast start, his split for 800m was well under 1:45.

Finally, Ngeny made multiple attempts at the 1000m record before running under 2:12. Kaki has a personal best of 2:13.93 in 2008, but otherwise he hasn't run the distance much. He must believe that the record is achievable, and that he has a better chance to get it than to get the 800 record or 1500 record on either side. I suppose that's true, but the 1000m is not soft. Nourredine Morceli and Steve Cram tried and failed to beat Coe's record. Perhaps El Guerrouj could have come closer had he focused on it, but he didn't and it has survived for 11 years.

So all things considered, my money is on Ngeny holding on to his record for now.