Girls
For quality and depth, this is one of the best girls fields in Bay State league history. You have an multiple all-state champion, four MSTCA-ranked teams, and a host of good individuals.
Three teams will view for the team championship and any one of them could win. The Newton North girls must be considered favorities to win and end a four-year streak of second-place finishes at this meet. It would not be a shock, however, to see either Wellesley or Weymouth have a good day and displace the Tigers. As they have all year, Natick brings two terrific runners to the meet, but the rest of their team will likely finish back in the pack. It will be interesting to see how the Brookline runners compete after taking it easy against North on Tuesday.
The individual race favorite is Jess Barton, of course, but don't be surprised to see Natick's Rebecca White right with Barton in the early going. After Barton and White, it's a battle for third among Natick's Anya Price, Weymouth's Kristen Mahoney and Nicole Pearce, Newton's Haleigh Smith and Carolyn Ranti, and Wellesley's Faith Richardson. It's also possible that Brookline's Sabrina Parise and Emily Groopman will be in the mix. Price beat the two Weymouth girls in the Natick-Weymouth dual meet at Elm Bank Park, but I expect Mahoney to do better on the longer, hillier course at Milton.
Here are my predictions for top ten, plus some others to watch:
1. Barton NNHS (won Bay State Invite at Northfield)
2. White Natick (won Boston Invite at Franklin Park)
3. Mahoney Weymouth (3rd at Boston Invite)
4. Price Natick
5. Ranti NNHS
6. Smith NNHS
7. Pearce Weymouth
8. Richardson Wellesley
9. Parise Brookline
10. Gnirke Wellesley
Also (in no particular order):
Barnicle NNHS
Connolly Weymouth
Godenzi NNHS
Groopman Brookline
Hemley-Bronstein NNHS
Lipman Needham
Lukes Wellesley
Sachetti Weymouth
Boys
The boys race holds much less suspense than the girls race. Brookline has no real rivals for the team title. Also, barring a disaster, Robert Gibson should win the individual race easily. Indeed, Brookline seems to be racing ghosts of the past, with their runners openly speculating about having six all-stars and scoring fewer points than the 22 scored by the 2002 Newton North team.
We shall see.
There are a number of strong individual runners not wearing Brookline's red and white, and these include Needham's Sam Miller and Kevin Potterton, Wellesley's Tommy Mayell (and a Wellesley cast of thousands), and Weymouth's Dan Pope. There has been speculation that the gap from 2nd to 12th place will be only twenty seconds, but I don't agree and point out that in the previous seven years, that gap has never been under thirty seconds.
Anyway, here are my predictions for the boys race:
1. Gibson Brookline (2nd at Bay State Invite)
2. Burnstein Brookline (16:16 at Brown)
3. Miller Needham (course record 16:30-something at Norwood)
4. Eisenberg-Guyot Brookline (sub-17 at Franklin Park)
5. Lehane Brookline (sub-17 at Franklin Park)
6. Mayell Wellesley
7. Pope Weymouth
8. Potterton Needham
9. Mercurio Brookline
10. Putzys NNHS
Also (in no particular order):
Carroll Wellesley
Chiemelinsky Framingham
Gluck Needham
Hamilton NNHS
Jordan Weymouth
Julian Weymouth
Manning Milton
Stewart Brookline
Stravinski Wellesley
12 comments:
First off, why is it that mahoney is in fornt of price when price just beat her the other day? also smith and ranti are ahead of pearce who beat them in the dual meet. Lastly groopman, parise(me), godenzi, and hemly-bronstein are all ahead of weymouth's sachetti and connolly who didnt even make the list...why is this? Also i feel lipman should be higher...
i agree donde es sachetti and connolly
GO NEWTON NORTH !
NEWTON NORTH LOVES KRISTEN MAHONEY !
umm who are you??
Care to try those predictions again?
Why so harsh?
For girls, I picked the top three in order and had seven of the top ten. I totally missed on Lipman and Perry, but the others weren't too far off.
For the boys, I under-rated Stewart, and over-rated Pope and Putzys (Mayell didn't run) but still had seven of the top ten.
Is that so bad?
I think he/she may have meant the team predictions. You whiffed big time on the Natick girls.
I think JOn got it right. He had the NN girls winning, with Weymouth (who was virtually w/o its #3), Wellesley and Natick behind. Although, Natick did step up alot in this meet, how should he have known that?
he said 3 teams could challenge for first - Newton, Weymouth, and Wellesley. how could he ignore Natick who was two places from finishing second.
wooah everyone just needs to chill out-- they are just his predictions! Up until the end of the season, natick had two very strong runners and a big drop off, however that pack improved throughtout the season which made them a lot stronger team, he just didnt see that coming, thats all
I'm thrilled we're getting so many comments, but I think perhaps some of you are looking too hard at my predictions for "Bulletin board" material.
I try to write what I think, while respecting every team and every runner. I am happy to be proven wrong...and am more than willing to admit when I goof.
I wrote that Natick wouldn't challenge for the win because I think they are still a work in progress with a gap of 2:52 from 1-5. They are improving steadily, however, and I think they have a good chance to win the league next year.
I think the results show that they didn't challenge for the win, they challenged for second place. They also ran extremely well (except for Price, perhaps, but I expect her to bounce back because she is very good and very tough).
I also wrote that no one would challenge Brookline for the win. But folks, the way to beat Brookline boys (or the Newton girls) is not to argue with my predictions, but spend more time running and recruiting.
Ok, flame away...
Post a Comment