For the boys, the Div I meet is going to be just like the old days, with two resurgent powerhouses - St. John's Prep and Brockton -- slugging it out with Lexington and Xaverian for the team championship.
Here's your guide to the meet, with a few modest predictions. Keep those comments coming!
The Top Teams
On paper, it's Lexington's meet to win, but of all schools, Lexington knows that meets aren't won on paper. I thought they were a lock last year in the State meet, but some misfortunes, including a "jumping-into-the-high-jump-pit-after-the-dash" disqualification did them in. I think the team contest is very close this year, but if Lexington can get 10 in the dash, 8 in the 1000, 16 from Paschal between the 300 and HJ, and win the 4x200 relay, that's 44 points and that should be good enough to win.
However, St. John's Prep looks very dangerous, with the top two seeds in the hurdles, a good chance in the 600, and three strong relay teams. Brockton and Xaverian can't be counted out. Brockton is likely to take 10 in the 2M and 4 in the 1M. They have the 3rd and 4th seeds in the long jump and three strong relay teams, including a 4x800 team that could very definitely win. Xaverian will hope for 10 points from Amirault in the 1000, 10 from Fitzgerald in the 600, 4 from Higgins in the 1M, and no worse than 2nd in the 4x800 (they are the top seed). That would put them at 32, but they also have an excellent chance for points in the 4x200, so if other teams falter, they could be right there.
Bay State powers Brookline and Newton North will have a hard time keeping up. Brookline should fare better, with Gibson a favorite for 10 points the 1M, and Stewart a good bet for 6 or more in the 1000. They could also get points in the dash (Bennett) and pick up a few more in the 2M (Burnstein, Eisenberg-Guyot). With a strong showing the 4x800, that could put them close to 30. Newton North doesn't have enough potential scorers to challenge for the team championship, but they will be hoping that David Smith can win the shot put, and they can get a point or two from among Marvin Chan (SP), Seb Putzys (1M), Gordon Forbes and Adam Bao (LJ), Forbes and Hymlaire Lamisere (55), or Sam Arsenault (HJ). Their 4x200 team could be in the top two or three, and their 4x400 team is definitely capable of scoring. On a perfect day, they would also be close to 30.
Top Individuals
In the 55 hurdles, Matt Sullivan of St. John's Prep is a big favorite, with teammate Chris Langton battling Braintree's Nate Starling for runner-up. In the dash, Darius Walker is a big favorite, but the battle for the next five places is wide, wide open.
In the 300, Lincoln-Sudbury's Nick Coluntuono is seeded first, ahead of Lexington's Meikle Paschal, but my money is on Paschal for the win. Newton North's Avery Mitchell is seeded 8th, but probably will scratch from the 300 to run on both the 4x200 and 4x400 relays for North.
The 600 is an intriguing race, with Xaverian's Fitzgerald and SJP's Prior the two top seeds. However, neither one is out of reach; Robert Morales of Brockton could take them both down, or, if there's a lot of bumping in the seeded heat, and we could see a runner from the unseeded heat break into the scoring, or even win like Stewart did last year.
The 1000 is probably the most stacked race of the day, as 4:11 miler Mark Amirault moves down in distance. He'll be challenged by Lexington's Bryan Longo, Brookline's Matt Stewart, Attleboro's Matt Brousseau, and Xaverian's Andrew MacIsaac, all of whom have run under 2:34 this year. In my mind, Stewart is the biggest wild card, since he is the defending all-state 600 champ. Does he have the stamina to survive in a race with Amirault and Longo? I think he does, and will be very close to them. Brousseau also has a history of coming up big in these meets (he finished 2nd last year) and could contend for the win.
Without Amirault, the mile feels a little empty, but it should be a very good race anyway, with Robert Gibson holding the top seed and Chelmsford's Chris Brown looking for a big win. Brockton's Carlos Montrond has been a big surprise to everyone who thought he didn't have enough speed for the middle distances, as he ran 4:24 at the MSTCA Elite meet. Putzys is seeded 8th, which means he will be in the seeded heat. If he can keep his head and finish strong, he could definitely break into the scoring.
The 2M should go to Kevin Gill, who is simply a stronger, faster runner than anyone else in the race. In fact, although it is not generall a Gill family trait to coast in any race, Kevin might try to win with minimum effort to save himself for the 4x800 relay later. Brockton and Brookline will both be hoping that they can pick up some small points in the deuce. brockton's Geovani Timberlake is seeded 5th, but only a couple of seconds ahead of the two Brookline boys.
In the field events, North's David Smith hopes to add to his collection of championship wins, but will have to overcome the challenge from BC High's Jake Bradley. Marvin Chan will be hoping for a 50' throw and a place on the podium.
The high jump will be a mano-a-mano battle between Paschal and Framingham's Jordan Maddocks. Paschal might have to run the 300 trials first, but will be hoping that it doesn't affect him as much as running the 600 in previous years. This could be one of the best events of the day, or a dud, depending on whether these two jump as they are capable of jumping.
In the long jump, there is a traffic jam of jumpers between 20'4 and 21'4, and anything could happen. North has to hope that both Adam Bao and Gordon Forbes make the finals and pick up some points. This could be a big event for Brockton, or a bust.
The Relays
As mentioned above, SJP has the top 4x2 time, and they are usually very good at the technical aspects of the race -- passing the baton and staying within the exchange zone. Newton North is capable of big things in this event, but they will have to be technically excellent to overtake the Prep.
In the 4x4, Lexington owns the top seed at 3:23 and are the heavy favorites. St. John's Prep and St. John's Shrewsbury have identical seed times at 3:28.07, but I give the edge to SJS. Newton North is seeded 6th, so they'll be in the seeded heat, and I like them for 4th. I have a feeling they have not run to their potential yet, and this will be the race to do it. In fact, they could finish as high as second.
In the 4x800, Xaverian and Brockton will battle for the win, and then I think there will be a gap to the next group of teams. Brookline owns the third best seed with an 8:04, but I have to believe that Stewart and Gibson will be a little fried from their races. Still, if they can get the baton around to Stewart and still be close enough for him to draft off Gill and Amirault, anything could happen.
The meet gets underway at 4:30 Friday, with running events starting at 5:00.
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