MIAA Div I Championships Preview: Girls

Friday night is the MIAA Div I Indoor Track Championships. It's the first of the Divisional Championships, which shall henceforth be referred to as the "True Indoor State Championships" (TISCs). The D1 meet is one of the biggest, most exciting meets of the year. So without further ado, let's dive into the details -- analyzing the events and making prognostications.

The Top Teams

There has been strenuous debate all year about the battle between three Div I powerhouse teams that all run in the Dual County League: Lincoln-Sudbury, Acton-Boxboro, and Newton South. L-S and A-B look to be the best two teams, with Newton South and New Bedford not too far behind, and Bridgewater-Raynham, Newton North, and Cambridge the best of the rest.

Lincoln-Sudbury has the top two seeds in the 600, and the top seed in the 1000. One of their two relay teams (probably the 4x400) will be the best in the meet, and the other (probably the 4x800) will definitely score. They hope to get a more points in the long jump, high jump, and maybe the 300. Their best athlete is Dana Jamieson, who is seeded first in the 600 and 3rd in the long jump (she'll also anchor their 4x400).

Acton-Boxboro has Natalie Crutchfield, who is seeded first in the 55 dash, and second in the long jump. They also have the top seed in the 300 and (surprisingly) the 2-mile. Their 4x200 relay team is excellent, and they also have the third fastest 4x400 team, although it's not clear who will be able to double on the relays.

Top Individuals

In the 55 hurdles, New Bedford has the top two seed, with Lauren Barber almost a half second better than anyone else in the field. While nothing is ever sure in the hurdles, Barber is close to a lock in this event.

Crutchfield is the favorite in the 55 dash, but Newton South's Candace Bailey has been coming on strong and owns an identical seed time. This is a huge event for A-B (and for South and New Bedford), and should be very close.

In the 300, A-B's Casey Hsiung has the top seed, but the top runners haven't gone head-to-head yet and Bridgewater-Raynam's Mary Zolga ran very well in taking second at the MSTCA elite meet. This race might be decided by who can get to the break line first and establish inside position. It should be a very close race. Lily Brown is entered for Newton North, but might be held out to be fresh for the 4x400 or 4x200 relay.

In the 600, the odds-on favorite is Lincoln-Sudbury's Jamieson, who ran 1:35 early in January and ran 1:34.4h at the DCL championships. Jamieson possesses a unique combination of speed and strength and should win going away. L-S also has Emily Mepham, seeded second at 1:36.87, but she might be challenged by Newton South's Diane Braver. Newton North's Kat Chiong is seeded 4th, and will go up against old rival Rachel Fox from Andover. The North coaches face an interesting dilemma deciding whether to have Emma Kornetsky run the 600 (she is seeded 13th), or keep her fresh for the 4x800 or 4x400 relay.

The 1000 could be a pivotal event for Lincoln-Sudbury. Molly Binder is the top seed, having run 2:58.20, and if L-S has a good race, Jessica Griffin could also score. But both L-S girls will have to contend with a very good field that includes Boston Latin's Caroline O'Laughlin, who could very well win the whole thing.

In one of the best head-to-head races of the day, the mile pits the ultimate strength runner, Newton North's Jess Barton, against one of the best kickers in the State, Newton South's Bridget Dahlberg. Dahlberg is the defending indoor state champ in this event, and is almost unbeatable when she is in the race with a lap to go. There's no mystery about how the race will unfold: Barton will lead and Dahlberg will try to follow. It will be a barn burner! North's Carolyn Ranti is seeded third, and it looks like a good decision, as she stays clear of the 1000. If North could pick up 14-16 points in this event, it might keep them in contention for a high team placing.

An interesting footnote to the mile race is to note that of the 62 runners entered in the event, 14 of them are from Newton (6 from North, 8 from South!). This includes four of the top five seeds. Another six are from Lincoln-Sudbury, meaning that three schools, all in the MetroWest suburbs, are responsible for 30% of the runners in the race. Weird.

Of the distance events, the 2-mile is, perhaps, the least spectacular in terms of gaudy seed times, but that makes it more interesting, as the top seed is "only" 11:31, and there are ten runners within 16 seconds of each other. This is a huge event for A-B, because they probably weren't expecting major points, but could get 10! Weymouth has the 3rd and 4th seed in Kristen Mahoney and Nicole Pearce, and either of them could win.

In the field events, the shot put looks to be a dandy competition with three girls over 35' led by Brockton's Harrison. Newton North has three competitors, but would be thrilled to have any of them make the finals, let alone score.

The high jump is a wide open event, with three girls seeded at 5-3 and a host at 5-1. Both Bridgewater-Raynham and L-S have contenders in this event, so they will be watching closely to see whether they can pick up big points. Sarah Berkland will be jumping for North, seeded at 5' even.

In the long jump, Aranxta King has owned the event, and should win here as well, although A-B's Crutchfield will be hoping to get off a great jump and take down (the) King. It's an important event from the team standpoint, as it pits (no pun intended) Crutchfield, Jamieson, N-B's Barber, and Newton South's Marquis. Let's hope it concludes before the relays so we know how the point totals stand.

The Relays

As mentioned, the 4x200 should belong to Acton-Boxboro, but the competition for places behind them will be extremely fierce.

If they run their "A" team, I think Lincoln-Sudbury is the clear favorite in the 4x400, and the only team likely to go under 4:00. Bridgewater-Raynham is the strong challenger, and then several teams will be contending for the next four spots, including Newton North and Newton South. Although seeded 3rd, I'm not sure how strong A-B's team will be because I don't know who will be doubling. Actually, the same comment applies to Newton North. Assuming they stack the 4x800 with Kat Chiong and Emma Kornetsky, who will run the 4x400? North could hold out both runners from the 600 and have them double in the relays, or they could hold out Kornetsky... I don't know, but probably other teams are facing similar decisions.

In the 4x800, L-S has a monster seed time, but assuming they save Jamieson for the 4x400, she won't available. Same with Mepham. On the other hand, even if L-S had to run their entire "B" team, they're still good enough to score. But without their "A" team, the best two squads will probably be Newton North (owners of a 9:28 this year) and Newton South, owners of a 9:38. The race for the tape could be a rematch of Barton-Dahlberg.

The meet gets underway at 4:30 Friday, with running events starting at 5:00.