Lagat... and Webb

I tried, but failed, to preserve a news blackout of the results of the men's 1500 at the World Championships yesterday. So when I finally sat down to watch the TV coverage, I already knew that Bernard Lagat had won the race, becoming the first American in 99 years to win a Olympic/World Championship at that distance. I also knew that Alan Webb had finished 8th.

I expected to see poor tactics from Webb, so I was surprised at how the race actually played out. In my opinion, Webb's tactics were ok. It's true that he took the lead early, but he didn't exert undue effort to hold the lead, or expend vast quantities of energy with a premature mid-race surge (See Scott, Steve, 1984). He was in a position to medal with 200m to go.

No Webb's tactics were not the problem; the problem was that Webb obviously was extremely nervous, and probably had been so since he lunged across the line in the semi-final. His body language before the race was telling: while other competitors seeemed to be settling down and gathering themselves, Webb was bouncing around like a six-year-old after a bowl of sugary cereal. After being introduced, he darted away from the starting line for one more little shake-out stride. He could hardly contain his nervousness. Once the race started, he flew to the front. Then he finally settled into the race, but when the time came to decide the final places, he was out of gas.

In the U.S., we tend to be tough on people who don't perform up to their potential, and I suppose people will be tough on Webb. But at this point, I feel that focusing on "Gold or nothing" is counter-productive for Webb. I hope that he takes away positive memories of what he did accomplish this year -- an American record in the mile, PR's in the mile, 1500 and 800 -- and uses the experience of Osaka to develop a mental toughness that will keep that anxienty and nervousness in check.

No doubt, Bernard Lagat's win will deflect a great deal of attention from frustrated expectations for Webb. Until the semi-final, Lagat didn't seem like a gold-medal winner, but the way he handled adversity (being stuck back in the pack) in the semi, boded very well for the final. It is highly unusual for a 32-year-old to win a world championship at 1500, and was the first major championship for Lagat, who has run most of his competitive career in the shadow of Hicham El Guerrouj.

Still, because Lagat grew up in and competed for Kenya before becoming an American citizen in 2005, his victory may not have the impact that a victory by Webb would have had. I don't defend this, but only state it as an observation. The top three runners in the race were Kenyan-born, and to have an American-born runner medal would have erased the impression that it can't be done.

Well, Webb still has plenty of time. The Olympics next year, and perhaps more world championships. Here's hoping he can learn from this season and this competition and run the race he is capable of running when it matters most.

PostScript 1: And Lagat still has the 5000m! He qualified for the final today, and has a couple of days to rest before the final. IS he capable of double-gold, a la El Guerrouj in Athens?