September 25, 2011

September 28, 2041

(Berlin)

Somalia's Abdi Jimale Bani became the first man in history to run the standard marathon distance in under two hours this morning, recording a stunning new world record of 1:59:55 at the Berlin Marathon. Jimale Bani, whose previous best had been 2:01:13, ran with a large pack early in the race, but seized the lead shortly after passing halfway in 59:49. Accompanied by his two virtual pacesetters, Jimale Bani opened up a lead that grew with every passing kilometer and it seemed ever more certain that he would better David Kipsang's old world record of 2:00:08; the only question was whether he would be inside the two-hour mark. When he crossed the line, the Somali-born and American-trained runner went to his knees and kissed the ground, then rose with a huge smile on his face and waved to the crowd.

In addition to the distinction of being history's first two-hour man, when he crossed the line Jimale Bani became perhaps the wealthiest distance runner in the world. In addition to his first-place prize money of $1,000,000 (USD), Jimale Bani received the course record bonus of $500,000 from race organizers. He also earned the $2.5 million "two-hour challenge" prize from the World Marathon Association.

Around the world, marathon fans celebrated the news that the barrier had finally been broken. There had been speculation that the record might fall in Berlin, but the man considered most likely to do it, 2036 and 2040 Olympic 10,000m Champion and half-marathon world record holder Dareje Tale of Ethiopia, retired from the race after only 15 kilometers with a leg injury that has plagued him in recent months.

The two-hour marathon has long been considered an achievement of supreme significance in long distance running. Perhaps no barrier has seized the imagination of the Athletics World since Roger Bannister broke the four-minute mile 85 years ago. In the early part of this century, the marathon record seemed under constant assault and was lowered nearly a dozen times in fifteen years. But progress seemed to come to a halt after Kenya's Paul Kimeli Koech ran 2:01:57 in 2019, a time that would not be bettered for another decade.

In the early 2030's, a new generation of marathoners began lowering the record again. Some credit new medical breakthroughs in understanding how the body repairs tissue damage after extreme physical exertion, allowing athletes to train at a higher level without needing as much recovery. Others credit technological advances in footwear and the construction of racing surfaces, such as those used in the streets of Berlin, that return more energy to runners' legs.

But perhaps the single most important reason that a human being has finally run under two hours for 26.2 miles is that Abdi Jimale Bani believed it was possible. "I knew that one day, someone would run under two hours," Jimale Bani said after his historic race. "I knew that there is no limit to what we can do, how fast we can run. Today I decided to not thing about what was impossible, but about how anything is possible, and now I am so happy."

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

What other "barriers" could be broken relatively soon?
sub 1:40? sub 12:30 under 4 minute mile pace for 5k? under 19 in the 200? What women barriers can be broken?

It is an interesting topic and certainly an exciting idea for the sport. Also when does it stop? could we see someone under 9 in the 100? 8?!? And for distance guys will sub 26 be attainable someday? If so how long? The future is fascinating!

m. glennon said...

I think you may be off a litlle with your future projection - my guess is that 2 hour barrier will come sooner than 2041.

Always have an interesting take on current events.

How is CA doing?

Anonymous said...

Wait did I miss something? Last time I looked at the calender it isn't April. :)

David Wilson said...

I can see Rudisha getting sub 1:40 in a year or two. Bolt will come close to 19.00 in the 200 but probably not break it. I think sub 2:00 for the marathon will take two more decades or so.

Old Blue Eyes said...

Two more decades for the women to break 2 hrs., but only a few more years for the men, if that. .

Jon Waldron said...

Thanks for all the comments. I find it fascinating that everyone thinks that two hours will be broken in much less than 30 years.

I looked at the WR progression, and decided to use 1981 as my baseline. Assuming a straight-line progression (rate of improvement stays the same), the record will be broken in ~23 years, or around 2034. I chose 30 years arbitrarily because it was a round number and because I thought it was reasonale to think the rate of improvement might start slowing down.

It seems most of my readers think the rate of improvement will accelerate! We shall see. I think it's worth pointing out that it took 26 years for men to lower the world record from 2:07:12 to 2:03:38 (3:34), so I think you guys are very optimistic to think it's going to take much less time to lower it the next 3:38.

Noah said...

Jon, you're right but let's not forget that the way things are going, the top talent is heading to the marathon younger and younger. It's only a matter of time until a Bekele-like talent passes up running 26:20 and heads straight to the marathon(it's more likely he'll be Kenyan). Don't get me wrong, Makau and the Mutais are really good, but they're not dominant the way Geb or Bekele are. A once every 10 years talent who goes straight to the marathon unlike Geb or Bekele can accelerate the pace. It might have been Wanjiru sadly RIP. Even as it is, if Bekele has any ability on the road he should be at 2:02 in 2014 if he moves up then and is healthy.