Newton North v. Weymouth on Thursday (Girls Preview)

It's a big week for Newton North's indoor track programs. On Thursday, North competes against Weymouth in a much-anticipated dual meet, and on Saturday the Tigers compete at the DI State Relays.

Mike Miller would like a preview of the NN-Weymouth girls meet, and why not? These have been the two preeminent teams in the Bay State league for the last few years, and their battles usually bring out big performances.

However, with the exception of 2010, these meets have turned out to be LESS close than predicted. In 2010, the meet came down to the relay, but that hasn't been true in any other recent year. Weymouth won decisively in 2008 and 2009, and Newton won decisively in 2007 and 2011. Then there was 2010, where an epic and close 4x400 settled the matter in North's favor, 46-40. It's a curious fact that if Weymouth had managed to win that one relay (and it was very close), the total number of points scored over the last FIVE YEARS of dual meets would would be 232.5 to 232.5 -- I'd say that's a pretty even rivalry.

Of course, scores don't tell the whole story. Meets can be very close without the score reflecting that closeness. A few hundredths of a second here or there can make a big difference. Anyway, that's the way I've felt about these meets for the last few years.

But this year feels different. This year, it feels as though the score will be close, perhaps very close, but many of the individual events seem to have clear favorites.

Taking the events in roughly the order in which they will be contested, I'd expect the mile to be one of the exceptions to my point. above. That is, the mile should be a close event that could go either way. Weymouth's great distance crew are regaining racing sharpness after a long cross country season and some recovery time. Newton's Evie Heffernan is a formidable foe. I'm going to say 5-4 for the Tigers.

Reverse that for the 1000, with Weymouth getting the win, and Newton taking the next two places for a 4-5 score.

In the 600, Meghan Bellerose appears to be on a new level. She won last year, and I don't see anyone beating her this year since she's gotten faster. 5-4 for Newton. Likewise, Carla Forbes in the 300, with Madi Nadeau 2nd.

In the sprints and hurdles, Kayla Wong is the best hurdler in the league, and Carla Forbes is money in the 55. Both of those events should go to Newton, and I think the Tigers will pick up thirds in both events.

Weymouth has dominated the 2M in recent years, and I think they'll go 1-3 this year, with Becca Trayner taking 2nd. If my math is correct, that gives the Tigers a 36-27 edge in the running events (minus the relay).

The high jump is the most unpredictable event in the meet, and it happens fairly early. Weymouth really has to win it to have a shot in this meet. I think it's a toss up between Kate Pearce and Lucia Grigoli, and no doubt I am forgetting someone who will end up out-jumping both of them, but I'll score it 4-5, with Weymouth getting the win.

The long jump will be exciting, but it's hard to imagine any result other than Carla Forbes first. Let's say this goes 6-3 to North. In the shot put, Weymouth's Nostia Amazan gets the win with Michaela Salvucci second. The field events make it 49-41 in favor of Newton.

In the last five years, only one event has tracked the result of the meet exactly. The team that wins the relay wins the meet every time. Even if it's closer than what I've outlined above, I think North will win the relay and the meet.

In any case, predictions are just for fun, and they don't matter! Good luck to BOTH teams. I hope that the competition brings out personal bests on both sides.

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The boys deserve a preview, too, but I'm not going get to it. My prediction: North will be tough to beat.