On Thursday, Brookline and Newton North will compete for the Bay State Carey indoor track title. Brookline has an excellent chance to become the first team to beat Newton North in an indoor dual meet in eight years, but it won't be easy. Here's what to watch for in this classic match-up:
One Mile - The tension starts before the starter has even called the runners to the "set" position. Because distance runners are limited to one event of 600m or longer, deployment of scarce resources is everything. Brookline's Robert Gibson is a sure winner in the mile or two-mile, and a favorite, but not a lock in the 1000. Newton's Seb Putzeys will beat anyone but Gibson in the 1000 or mile, and maybe in the 2-mile, too, although he would have his hands full with David Wilson. So where do the coaches deploy them? Mike Glennon says Gibson will run the mile... If both Gibson and Putzeys are in the mile, that's 6-3 Brookline. (Could Putzeys beat Gibson in a tactical race? YES! So I don't expect it to be too tactical.) If Putzeys moves down to the 1000, he'll win it. One needs a Ph.D in game theory to determine how to play this one. I'll score it 6-3 Brookline.
1000 (KEY EVENT)- If Putzeys runs the mile, Brookline could try to sweep the 1000 by using Elliot Lehane, Ryan Hardiman, and one other runner who has a shot of breaking 2:50. It will be very important for Newton to try to get third place at least, with Alex Gurvitz, perhaps. Of course, if Putzeys runs, it goes 5-4 for Newton. I'll assume Putzeys is in the mile and score this one 8-1 Brookline, but that one point is in play.
600 - After last week, it seems to make sense for Brookline to run Ian Sandler and Chris Mercurio and take the eight points to the bank. Of course, Mercurio is valuable in the 1000 or mile, but a second place in the 600 is worth more. This looks like another 8-1 for Brookline unless Adam Bao can drop two seconds and challenge for second place.
300 (KEY EVENT) - The 300 is a huge swing event, matching Brookline's Michael Bennett with Newton's Ivan Kostadinov and Hymlaire Lamisere (or Adam Bao?). Bennett could win or he could get third, an 8-point swing. I'll split the difference and say that Kostadinov wins, with Bennett second, giving Newton a 6-3 edge.
2-Mile - Brookline is rich in two-milers, and can sweep this event if they run David Wilson, Michael Burnstein, and Brendan Grove. On the other hand, Dan Hamilton has run 10:16 and is certainly capable of taking the third spot. I don't know why, but I've never yet correctly predicted Brookline's deployment of their distance runners, but I'll still give them the benefit of the doubt and score this one 9-0 Brookline.
55 Hurdles (KEY EVENT) - The hurdles is NEVER an easy event to predict, but I think Sam Arsenault will win, and I think Tony Chen has a shot of beating Joel Parent and taking second. That would be an enormous swing for the Tigers, if they can pull it off. (If they don't, then the meet might very well be over before the teams line up for the 4x400 relay.) I'll go out on a limb and say that Tony Chen runs 8.46, Newton takes 1-2, and the relay will matter. I'm scoring it 8-1 Newton.
55 dash (KEY EVENT) - With Michael Bennett in the dash, this is another event in whcih Brookline could win or finish third. Troy Peterson and Hymlaire could go 1-2 or 2-3, and regardless of the outcome of the relay, that would be the meet. As I did in the 300, I'll split the difference and give Newton first and third, for a 6-3 edge.
Shot Put - Barring a disaster, Steve Long should lead the Newton North shot putters to a sweep of this event and its 9 points. Do yourself a favor and go watch some of the action anyway.
High Jump (KEY EVENT) - I think Newton North MUST win the high jump to have a chance in this meet. Sam Arsenault has cleared 6-4, and if he can come through with a jump like that on Thursday (without taking too many misses at lower heights), he should win over Brookline's Alex Lippincott. Either Ben Kiley and Adrian Dmitrov are a good bet to get the other point for Newton. I'll score this 6-3 in favor of the Tigers.
And that brings us to the relay with Brookline holding a 42-39 advantage. So many things could break differently than I have outlined above, and of course, I have no knowledge of how the coaches might redeploy their runners to scrape for that extra point or two. But if it DOES come down to the relay... if Newton still is alive at that point, it will be a hell of a race.
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6 comments:
It's killing me to have to miss this meet.
Great analysis.
55M Hurdles. I have never seen Joel over 55m, but he is having a winning season. I think it is hard to see NN going 8-1 on a kid who has put up some great times this year.
The distance races will be interesting. Seb dogged B-line last year when they tried to bos him in. I would try to take all the run out of him before the 4 x 400.
300/600 is where the meet will be won/lost. I would say that B-line could get as many as 15 points or as few as 9 in those two events.
Joel is a fine athlete and solid competitor and I don't mean to underestimate him; he is capable of winning the hurdles, and certainly I'm stretching to imagine him third. What can I say? -- I wanted to present a plausible analysis in which the meet is decided by the relay. This underscores the fact that Brookline is definitely capable of winning the meet before then. Newton has to step up somewhere to keep it close.
You really think Seb could beat Gibby in a 1K? I'll try to use this as a way to set my lineup so you can be more accurate this time. In the past your way usually works much better.
No, I'm just a sloppy writer and didn't express myself well. I think if Seb and Gibby raced the 1000, Gibby would win. My point was that in a really slow mile, Seb might have a chance, but the more I think about it, I think Gibby would win a tactical race as long as he didn't leave it until the very end.
That 1000 was incredibly tactical - Good call on Seb being able to beat Gibson in a race like that (even if it was the 1000, not the mile)
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