Weymouth vs Newton North Girls Preview

The Bay State Carey Division girls champions will be decided Thursday night, as undefeated Weymouth and undefeated Newton North square off in their dual meet at the Reggie Lewis Center. The meet was originally scheduled for the first week of the season, but was postponed because of the Decemeber 13th snowstorm. Now it's fitting that the two strongest teams meet at the end of the season to decide the league.

Others have already handicapped the races (and done a great job at it), so I'll try to bring a little bit different perspective: I'll try to outline a winning strategy for each team in turn. Remember, this is all for fun. I don't talk to the coaches, I don't really know anything, and I like ALL the runners equally. In fact, if you're easily offended you should stop reading right now.

Ok? Let's start with Weymouth...

How the Weymouth girls can beat Newton North

Carolyn Ranti is the odds-on favorite to win either the mile or 1000. If Weymouth runs Jill Corcoran in the mile, Corcoran has a great shot at winning (if Ranti is in the 1000) or taking second (if Ranti is in the mile). Let's assume Carolyn runs the mile, along with Adina Hemley-Bronstein. Score it 6-3 Newton.

Weymouth has to make a big choice in the 1000. Run Carolyn Connolly and she's not available for the 600. I think they might run Sarah McCarthy, and expect that she'll take no worse than second behind either Nora Barnicle or Ranti. Shoshana Kruskal nabs the third spot, and again Newton takes the event 6-3. (If Ranti is in the 1000, which is not unlikely, this deployment gives Weymouth a good chance to win the mile and still pick up three points in the 1000.)

Now Weymouth can run Carolyn Connolly in the 600, where she is the league leader and almost a full second faster than Emma Kornetsky. Melissa Kimball takes third for the Wildcats, so score it 6-3 Weymouth.

Sam Bennett has run 43.99 in the 300, and would be the favorite to beat Michelle Kaufman or anyone else Newton could throw out there. Felicia Hopkins has run 46.07 and is improving every week. I say this event goes to Weymouth 6-3, tying the meet.

Before moving on to the sprints, let's handicap the field events.

High jump results have been pretty consistent over the last four meets. Newton's Amy Ren is the favorite to win, and Jenn Bell and Carolyn Connolly should take 2nd and 3rd. 5-4 Newton.

In the shot put, Bonny Guang has been solid for Newton and should win. Weymouth's Christine Candler has been consistently over 26 feet, so I think she takes second. Weymouth would celebrate if Felice Campbell or Jenna Willard could take 3rd, but it's unlucky to bet against any Newton North team in the shot put. Score this 6-3 Newton.

In the 55 hurdles, Newton has the edge with Vicki Marone and Paris Mungo. Weymouth's Jenna Clifford has been coming on strong of late, but I have to say this event goes 8-1 to Newton. Weymouth turns the tables in the dash, and actually has a good chance to sweep with Kayla Sullivan, Jenn Bell, and Emily Clark. Perhaps Michelle Kaufman or Latifah Smalls can take third. I'll score it 8-1, Weymouth.

In the two-mile, Kristin Mahoney takes first and earns five points for Weymouth. The Wildcats will hope for a third place from Amanda Hicks, and it could happen, but I think it's more likely that Susannah Gleason secures the third spot, and this event goes 5-4 to Weymouth.

That puts the score at 42-39 Newton going into the relay. Now Weymouth just has to take care of business with their best team. I'm guessing that's Bennett, Kimball, Bell, and Connolly, a formidable quartet!

How the Newton North Girls Can Beat Weymouth

This meet will be won or lost in the sprints, hurdles, and relay, so a winning strategy should mean putting together the best possible lineup for those events. IN particular, who should be in that relay?

I think Newton should keep Michelle Kaufman in the 300, which allows them to have Ranti (a 60-something 400 runner) in the relay. Likewise, they certainly need Emma Kornetsky, the lion-hearted anchor there.

Newton could choose to double Kaufman in the 55 hurdles and go for the sweep, or have her run the 55 dash, and try to break up Weymouth's potential sweep. But why not have her run the relay as well? Kaufman ran 44.46 for 300 last week, surely she is no worse than 62-63 in the 400. The other member of the team could be Jaya Tripathi, who PR'd at 600 last week, or Nora Barnicle, who PR'd at 1000, or Jen Liu. Win the relay and you likely win the meet.

Are there any other trick moves North could make? Well, I don't see that there's any value to shuffling the distance runners around. It's important to take thirds in the mile and two mile, but otherwise it doesn't look like this is a time for devious strategy.

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Will it happen this way, probably not! But it should be an exciting meet, and I wish both teams the very best of luck and lots of personal bests as they compete for the league title!