Doing the Math; Knowing the Score

I sometimes wonder if one of the reasons cross-country meets aren't as popular or well-covered as soccer and football games is that most of the people watching have no idea what the score is.

Well, technically I suppose there is no "score" until someone finishes the race, but there is the score "on the course" meaning the score if the race were to end with the runners in their current positions.

Anyway, I find that most of the parents and friends who come out to stand around in the cold watching people run cross-country races have a very dim idea of who is winning and by how much. A few years ago I wrote a short primer on How to Watch a Cross-Country meet, in which I tried to explain the scoring and give examples of interesting situations that can occur.

So all of this is prelude to thinking about today's showdown between Brookline and Newton North. Brookline's David Wilson and Brendan Grove are expected to go 1-2, while North's Dan Hamilton and Mike Goldenberg are expected to take the next two places. So what are the possibilities after that?

If Brookline's #3 finishes 5th, North cannot score less than 28 points, even if they take the next three places. To win, North would have to displace at least one of Brookline's runners (in other words, North's SIXTH runner would have to beat Brookline's FIFTH runner). For example:

B: 1-2-5-9-11 = 28
N: 3-4-6-7-8-(10) = 28, and wins with better 6th runner

I have to say, I think this is unlikely.

If, on the other hand, North's Jared Forman finishes fifth, the task is a bit easier. Then, North's FOURTH and FIFTH runners have to beat Brookline's FOURTH. For example:

B: 1-2-6-9-10 = 28
N: 3-4-5-7-8 = 27

If North takes 3-4-5, but Brookline takes 6-7, the meet is over and Brookline wins, no matter what. For example:

B: 1-2-6-7-12 = 28
N: 3-4-5-8-9-(10)-(11) = 29

One interesting (meaning hard to figure) scenario would be if North takes 3-4-5, and Brookline takes 6-8. This would be similar to the first scenario in that the meet could be decided by North's SIXTH runner. For example:

B: 1-2-6-8-11 = 28
N: 3-4-5-7-9-(10) = 28 , and wins with better 6th runner


Anyway, you get the idea. If the race goes as forecast, there won't be much drama at the front of the race. All the action will be back in the pack where someone's good race or final sprint could make all the difference.