NN - Brookline Preview

We know that anything can happen in a track meet. Plans can go awry. Athletes can stumble. Batons can be dropped. On a more positive note, individuals and teams can step it up and surprise even themselves with stellar performances that stretch beyond what anyone thought they could do. So yes, Brookline can win tomorrow's meet with Newton North, but they'll need to step it up big time to pull off what would have to be considered a big upset. Upsets happen.. (where have I heard that recently?).. How big an upset would it be for Brookline's red and blue to seize what has been an orange mantle for more than a decade?

Brookline might not have a state champion on its team, but they are quite deep, and nowhere more so than in the distance events. They won't give up a single easy point in the 1M, 1000, and 2M, and could conceivably take 20-21 points in those events. I think Ezra Lichtman will win either the mile or 1000, although the mile would be a tougher race. So let's say North runs Justin Keefe in the mile. I think Justin will have to run 4:42 or better to have a hope of a second place, and even then, it's not guaranteed. In this scenario, Brookline could get 8 points in the mile, 4 in the 1000. Another scenario would have North running both Lichtman and Keefe running the 1000 where they could go 1-2, but I don't expect North's coaches to take that gamble and leave the mile open. What if they run Dan Ranti in the mile? That's appealing, although it certainly doesn't guarantee a win (and would leave Jake Gleason to battle Brookline's 2-milers by himself).

Ok, enough second guessing. Since the point of this exercise is to show how Brookline can keep it close, I'll say that they take 12 points in the 1M and 1000.

In the 600, Brookline needs a big race from Will Jackson. North's Isaiah Penn has the better time this year, but for the sake of making this interesting, let's say Jackson pulls it out and Brookline also takes 3rd to get 6 points.

The 300 should be a terrific race with Ben Kiley vs. Irwin Scott, but after last week, I just don't see Ben Kiley losing. Freshman Ryan Lucken should take third, so we'll give Brookline 3 points here.

The 55 looks much like the 300, with similar personnel plus North's Hao-Kai Wu. Kiley should win, and let's give Scott 2nd (not a sure thing!). 3 more points for Brookline.

The 55 hurdles is a weak event for the Warriors, and the Tigers' Faisal Mayanja seems to be getting it together. Let's say 1-3 North, and Brookline gets another 3 points.

The 2-mile should be an epic battle, with three Warriors and two Tigers all capable of running at or under 10:00. (Unless of course Dan Ranti runs the mile...) My head says Brookline goes 1-3, but again, to keep things interesting let's write down 8 points for them here.

Kiley jumped 6-0 last week. If he can get within 4 inches of that, I think he probably wins over Scott for the third time (well, actually for the first time since the high jump comes before the sprints). North 6, Brookline 3.

It will take a minor miracle for Brookline to avoid a sweep in the shot put. I don't see it happening. 9-0 North.

Have you been adding this all up at home? By giving Brookline the benefit of the doubt in all the distance races, giving them an upset win in the 600, but assuming that Ben Kiley has not lost his superman cape, I have Brookline with...wait for it...38 points going into the relay, and a chance to tie.

But North won't lose the relay. Nope. You'd be more likely to convince me that a Republican could be elected to the senate in Blue Massachusetts than that Brookline could win the 4x400 relay tomorrow with the meet on the line. Nope, couldn't possibly happen...