To borrow a phrase from Steven Covey ("The 7 Habits of Successful People"), when it comes to a track meet against a dangerous rival, you want to "begin with the end in mind."
Tomorrow the Newton North boys face a dangerous rival in Framingham, and I'm pretty sure North wants to put the meet out of reach before the final event. If the meet DOES come down to the 4x400 relay, it will be a barn burner of a race, with the Flyers mindful that they came out on top last week.
Framingham is good this year, and especially strong in the short events. Here's how I see the meet playing out:
1 Mile - Seems like North would want to run Lichtman here to take on impressive sophomore Ben Groleau (4:44 last week). Score it 6-3 NN.
1000 - Is Matt Lee around? Seems like he and Justin Keefe could take the top two places. 8-1 NN.
600 - Isaiah Penn ran 1:26 before Christmas, but wasn't in the results last week. Since he's MIA, I'll give the win to Framingham's Sean Adley. 4-5
300 - The race of the night, with Andrew Lawson (37.40), Bo Lewis (37:43), and Ben Kiley (37.68) the top three finishers from last week competing in the same race. This will be a huge race for Kiley, who seems to love the pressure. If he wins, the meet is all but over. But he'll need his A game to pull it off. Let's split the difference and say Framingham gets 1st and 3rd. 3-6.
2-Mile - Probably NN's safest points of the night, as the Flyers have no one who can run with Ranti and Gleason. 8-1 NN.
55 - Kiley again. I think he wins the dash, but Framingham goes 2-3. 5-4 NN.
55 - hurdles. Framingham sweeps. 0-9.
SP - North could/should sweep, but Daniel Ruiz has thrown 41-7, so let's give the Flyers third. 8-1 North.
HJ - Kiley wins, and North gets third as well. 6-3 NN.
By my count (someone check my math) that would give North 48 points, and they wouldn't need the relay. However, things can go wrong. North could give up points in the 1000 (maybe Groleau?). Kiley could finish third in the 300. Anything can happen in the dash, and don't get me started on the hazards of counting on the high jump.
Good luck to both teams. It should be an exciting meet!
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3 comments:
Just a couple of corrections. Matt Lee is around, but not a factor in the scoring(his time was incorrectly reported previously). Framingham beat us in the relay, but we didn't have Penn and used Kwan who ran 56.7. However, you are right that the meet will be close and Kiley is the key. Does he usually let up in the 300 because he is spent or becuase he is unchallenged. He'll either win or come in 3rd.
You usually save meet predictions like this for Brookline v. NN which is still a week away.
Jim - Thanks for the corrections!
Mike -- I decided to do a preview to underscore the fact that Framingham is a really strong team this year and should be taken seriously as a threat to end NN's streak. Should the Tigers win, then they can start worrying about Brookline, which of course has already beaten Framingham in a close meet.
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