2010 Indoor Div I Preview - Girls

In indoor track, at least, the era of Newton South and Lincoln-Sudbury dividing up all the championship hardware between them appears to have passed, and this year the girls team championship looks like a battle among Newton North, Newton South, Andover, and Boston Latin. However, Wachusett and Franklin are right behind those four, and both Lincoln-Sudbury and Weymouth are strong candidates to over-achieve and crack the top five.

On paper, at least, Newton North appears to have the edge. They have two big stars in Margo Gillis and Carla Forbes, and as much depth as any other team. But to win, they must get strong performances from their hurdlers and jumpers, and then take care of business in the relays. If I might channel Joe Tranchita for a moment, the road for Newton North is full of potholes and hazards, and ony of which might ruin the Tigers' chances, in which case that whooshing you hear will be the sound of Andover and Newton South rushing by.

But let's be a bit more optimistic. NN should get pretty big points from Forbes in the LJ and 55 and from Gillis in the 1000. If they can earn a few in the hurdles and a few in the high jump, win or place in the 4x800 relay, then the only big question is whether their 4x200 team can withstand the pressure and the competition and live up to its fourth seed. Why not? What could possibly go wrong?

With that question hanging in the air, let's go through the individual events.

High Jump

Andover would like nothing better than to land a knockout punch in the high jump, whether they could very possibly go 1-2 and score 18 points. Weymouth's Emily Clark has proven she can jump when the pressure is on and will make a strong bid to finish higher than her 4th seed. Emily Hutchinson will need a big meet to get points in this event. Scoring the four top teams, I'll say: Andover 16, Newton No. 2, Newton So. 0, Boston Latin 0.

1 Mile

Newton South is going to clean up here. Kathy O'Keefe is running as well as she ever has, and both she and Mel Fineman are battle-tested and ready. I think that Weymouth's Jill Corcoran will battle them the whole way, and Peabody's Catarina Rocha is a scary talent who might be in the mix, but the Newton South girls will go 1-2 in the end. Andover 0, Newton No. 0, Newton So. 18, Boston Latin 0.

600m

Wachusett has two 1:38 runners in this race. Unfortunately, they'll be going up against two 1:35 runners in Haverill's Rebecca Stabile and Franklin's Kendall Knouse. The fastest 600 runner in the state is Lincoln-Sudbury's Andrea Keklak, but she's in the 1000...

1000m

This is one of the must-see races of the day. Last year's Outdoor 800m champion against last year's 800m runner-up. Andrea Keklak has been incredible this season, showing amazing range from the 600 up to the mile (and she could run a great 2-mile, if asked to do so). Keklak beat Kathy O'Keefe last week at the DCL champs, running 2:52 to O'Keefe's 2:53. It's too bad Kathy isn't in the 1000, too, but Gillis is a worthy challenger to Keklak. No one else will be close.

Boston Latin has a runner seeded 6th, but I like the chances of Weymouth's Morgan Fitzgibbon to deprive Latin of that point. Andover 0, Newton No. 8, Newton So. 0, Boston Latin 0.

Shot Put

Newton South has Kayla Jackson and Ezra Banks lurking as the 7th and 8th seeds. If they can pop big throws and garner some shot put points, it will be a huge boost to their title chances. Andover 0, Newton No. 0, Newton So. 2, Boston Latin 0.

300m Final

Boston Latin has the top two seeds in Emma Rice (40.94) and Meisha Brooks (41.14). Andover's Eve Bishop is seeded fourth. Boston Latin has to sweep the top two places to have a shot at the title. Andover 6, Newton No. 0, Newton So. 0, Boston Latin 18.

2 Mile

No Emily Jones. No Kelsey Karys. None of the contending teams has a runner seeded in the top ten. Weird. Franklin could score a lot of points here, and maybe claw their way into the top four.

55 Dash - KEY EVENT

the 55 dash features contenders from the top teams: Newton South's Ezra Banks has the top seed, with Boston Latin's Alexandra Williams .08 behind. It's a tall order for Carla Forbes to hold he fourth place seed in this field, but crucial for North's chances. Andover's Kayla Baldwin would dearly love to be in the top three. Hundredths of a second could decide the meet. Instead of predicting, I'll just assign points based on the seeds and you can make your own predictions: Andover 2, Newton No. 4, Newton So. 10, Boston Latin 8.

55 Hurdles

Kayla Wong (8.85) and Amy Ren (8.87) are seeded 4th and 5th. With three races to run, consistency counts for a lot here. I'll give Newton 2 points in this event.

Long Jump - KEY EVENT

This is another swing event. Carla Forbes has been a foot better than anyone else in the field, and should win here (although she might not jump 18-7 again!). Newton South's Christie Lee has jumped 16-9, and Andover's Abbey Tetterutto has jumped 16-4. I'm scoring this: Andover 1, Newton No. 10, Newton So. 8, Boston Latin 0.

That 8 points for Newton South might be the key to the meet.

4x800 Relay

Newton North, the top seed at 9:29, will be challenged from all sides in this race, as I expect four, maybe five teams to be at or under 9:30 tomorrow. Newton South will be very fast, as will Franklin, and if Weymouth stacks the 4x800 at the expense of the 4x400, they will be right in it. In the end, I think Newton North has the best chance to win because only Gillis will be doubling (I assume, although I could be wrong). I'll say: Andover 0, Newton No. 10, Newton So. 6, Boston Latin 0.

4x200

Boston Latin looks untouchable, and Andover is the clear favorite to take second. Newton North needs to be great in this event, and Carla Forbes will have run three races when she races here. I don't want to be standing near Coach Tranchita when this race is going on. Andover 8, Newton No. 2, Newton So. 0, Boston Latin 10

4x400

Adding up my fantasy scores, we reach the final event with the top four teams in these positions:

Newton South 44
Newton North 38
Boston Latin 36
Andover 33

If that's the way it is, the meet's over, since no one will be able to catch Newton south. So from a purely competive point of view, let's hope that Newton South doesn't score quite that many points, that Andover score a couple more somewhere along the line, that Newton North finds some points in the jumps or hurdles, and that it all comes down to how second-seeded Andover runs in the relay.

But I have a feeling it will be Newton South repeating as D1 champs.