2010 Indoor State Meet Preview

The 2010 Indoor All-State meet is Friday evening. Here's a less-than-exhaustive look at the most intriguing team and individual battles:

Girls Team and Individual

The girls team competition will be a tense battle between a half dozen schools, including D1 champs Newton North, D2 champs Mansfield, Newton South, Franklin, Boston Latin, Lincoln-Sudbury, and Wachusett. It seems to me that the winning score will be in the low to mid-20's, which means that there's an outside chance for teams like Triton, Beverly, and Andover to be in the mix.

Newton North will expect big points from Margo Gillis in the 1000 and Carla Forbes in the Long Jump. North is also seeded 2nd in the 4x800 relay. if Forbes can score in the 55, or if Emily Hutchinson and Kayla Wong can pick up any points in the high jump or hurdles, that would be a huge bonus. Another upside possibility is the team's 4x200 relay, which is seeded 7th. On the seeds alone, North projects to 18 points, but I think Gillis will finish better than her 5th seed, and I think the 4x200 will pick up 1-2 points. I predict North will be around 22-23 points, with 24-25 a distinct possibility.

Mansfield threatens to crash the D1 party with scoring potential in four events. Kristen McDonagh is tied for the top seed in the high jump, having jumped 5-7 last week. They have the 4th seed in the 300 and the 5th seed in the 55. They also have the 2nd seed in the 4x200. The good news is that four strong events gives them upside, but they need to score in all of those events. I would guess they'll be around 21-22 points.

At the Div I meet, Newton South coach Steve McChesney told me that in some ways, his team was better-positioned to compete for the State Meet title than the Divisional crown. South finished 5th in the team standings last Saturday, but has three strong events this Friday. Ezra Banks should be in the top three in the 55, and I have no reason to doubt that Kathy O'Keefe and Melanie Fineman can't pick up lots of points in the mile. I think it's reasonable for South to hope for 18-20 points from these two events. If the team can then meet or beat its fourth seed in the 4x800 relay, that's 22-24 points, with some upside. I think 24 points might be enough to win the meet, so for the second week in a row, I'll say South has the best chance to win.

Wachusett was outstanding last week, and certainly made me look foolish for not ranking them higher. they have the top seed in the 600 (Laura Williamson) and the 3rd seed in the 4x400, which projects to 16 points. They also have runners just outside the top six in the 600, 1000, and 2-Mile. If a couple of their athletes can break into the scoring, then they could also exceed that 20-point barrier.

Lincoln-Sudbury has an excellent chance to win the 1000 (with the state's fastest performer in Andrea Keklak) and the 4x800 relay. They'll need more points from somewhere, and they might come from sophomore Madison Acton in the 600 (seeded 8th at 1:38) or their 4x400 relay team (seeded 10th).

Boston Latin is in the mix based on the strength of its sprinting. Latin has the top-seeded 4x200 team, and two strong contenders -- Meisha Brooks and Emma Rice in the 300.

I've left out some teams and individuals in the above summary. One of the state's best athletes, Triton's Deanna Latham, could win two events (LJ and 55 hurdles) and give her team 20 points, but I think that won't be enough to place in the team standings. Beverly has two superb distance runners in Monica Adler (top seed in the mile) and freshman Millie Chapman (3rd seed in the 2-Mile), and might score in the 4x800, but I don't think they'll reach 20 points.

Race of the night? For the girls, I think it's the mile, with 7 runners at 5:06 or better and no dominant favorite. I think its also one of the most pivotal races, along with the relays, of course.

Boys - What is There to Say?

There's no more doubting Andover. Their relay performance last week was without precedent, as they won all three, setting records in two. They could win the meet without scoring any individual points, but of course they have the State's fastest sprinter in Chris McConnell, and potential points in the mile and long jump.

The battle is for 2nd, and there I'd say the contenders are Mansfield, Falmouth, and St. John's Prep.

The race of the day, in my opinion is the boys 2-mile, although it will have little impact on the team standings. The field is extraordinary, and I can easily construct scenarios to convince myself why one or another of the runners wins it.

Arlington's Antony Taylor has the top seed, at 9:19. Taylor is tremendously strong, and is known for pushing the pace. He does not have the best kick, however, so has every incentive in the world to run hard from way out. If I were him, I'd wait around for the first mile, and then run the next 8 laps as hard as I could. It wouldn't surprise me to see him go 4:45-4:30. would that be enough?

The second seed is Shrewsbury's John Murray. I saw him run for the first time last week, and I came away in awe of his kick. After spotting Jared Reddy a 10-meter lead, Murray dropped a 29-second last lap that looked so heart-breakingly smooth and controlled that I couldn't help wonder what would have happened if he had started that kick earlier. Murray's vulnerability is getting separated from the front runners too early in the race, but if he is there with 300 to go, watch out. There is no one more talented in the field.

Third seed is Westborough's Jeff Bush, who placed third in last Spring's State finals with a 9:18.

Fourth seed is Whitman-Hanson junior Tyler Sullivan, who ran 9:26 last week. Fifth seed is last week's D1 runner-up (and new Methuen school record holder) Jared Reddy. either of these two will expect to be fighting for a place on the podium.

Catholic Memorial's Ed Colvin is the 6th seed (9:31). He is joined in the top ten by three outstanding underclassmen: Mansfield junior Shayne Collins (9:32), Brookline sophomore Chernet Sisay (9:36), and King Phillip sophomore Chris Allen (9:38).

And I haven't even mentioned the 8th seed, Nashoba's Coby Horowitz who is merely the defending outdoor 2-Mile champion. Horowitz ran down Alex Kramer in last year's State Meet, recording a time of 9:16.90.

It's a great field, and should be a great race.

The meet gets underway at 4:30. For performance lists, see the following link:

2010 Indoor State Meet Performance Lists