2007 Bay State League Preview - Boys

It's that time again! Time for readers to bring their baskets of rotten tomatoes ready to hurl at my analysis and predictions for the 2007 Bay State XC season. But before we look at 2007, let's see how the crystal ball was working back in 2006. How did I do in predicting the league results?

Here's how I ranked the teams, and how they actually performed (I might have made some mistakes with final records -- please correct, if necessary):

Pre-season Rank     2006 Record   Place at league meet
1.   Brookline      11-0          1
2.   Needham        9-2           2
3.   Weymouth       9-2           5
4.   Newton North   7-4           3
5.   Wellesley      9-2           4
6.   Framingham     2-9           9
7.   Natick         5-6           8
8.   Norwood        4-7           7
9.   Walpole        6-5           6
10.  Braintree      2-9          10
11.  Milton         2-9          11
12.  Dedham         0-11         12

I certainly underestimated Wellesley, Walpole, and Norwood, and overestimated Framingham. Still, I wasn't too far off, especially looking at the league meet results.

So with that out of the way, on to 2007.

Team-by-team Capsules

1. Brookline - This year it's still all about Brookline, and things are only interesting after giving the Warriors first place. To rehearse what everyone already knows, Brookline returns four of five from the team that won the Bay State Invitational last year and battled Brockton and St. John's for the Div I State Championship. They have also added David Wilson, a first-rate harrier who trained like a demon this summer. Gibson and Wilson project to be among the very best in the state, while Burnstein, Lehane, and Mercurio (if healthy) are all low-to-mid-16 guys. No team in the BSC will challenge them.

2. Newton North - Seb Putzys really came into his own during indoor and outdoor track and is capable of beating Miller. Dan Hamilton is in very good shape and will be a sub 17:00 runner this year. The team also has great depth, with seniors Ben Chebot and Charlie Krasnow, sophomores Jake Gleason and Michael Weinfeld, and freshman Ezra Lichtmann. Watch out for the Tigers, especially after they get a few meets under their belts.

3. Needham - The Rockets have a strong quartet in Sam Miller, Brett Riley, Kevin Potterton, and Liam Gluck. The dyestat pundits give Needham the nod as the clear second-place team behind Brookline, but I expect Newton North to be a lot better than people expect. Needham has struggled with injuries in the last couple of years, and I don't think they have the depth to replace one of their top guys if anyone is hurt. However, now that I've written this, I'm sure they will be super motivated to prove me wrong.

4. Wellesley - I know very little about Wellesley this year, and never saw any of their runners over the summer, so I don't know where they stand. They lost Tom Mayell to graduation, but Will Volkmann will be strong for them. I would expect they'll still be contending for the Herget title, at least.

5. Walpole - Walpole has a number of solid runners, led by Chris Lotsbom. They have slowly been building their program, and might be ready to break into the top five this year.

6. Weymouth - The Wildcats had a great season last year, but graduated top runners Dan Pope, Mark Jordan, and Craig Myers. This year the team doesn't look quite as strong. I know some of the Weymouth runners have been training all summer, but is Brett Julian in shape? I think Weymouth will have a lot of difficulty duplicating their 9-2 record of last year.

7. Norwood - Watch out for Norwood! Norwood was much improved last year, and I have no doubt that coach Jim Forrest will have the Mustangs in even better shape this year. While I think Wellesley is the favorite to win the Herget Division, it would not be a shock to see Norwood or Walpole give them a run for their money.

After that, the picture becomes murky.

8. Natick - I know all about the Natick girls team, but I have very little familiarity with the boys on the Natick team. Still, they always have an enthusiastic pack, and usually one or two strong runners emerge. They could do better than 8th, but the league will be strong this year, so...

9. Braintree - The Wamps could be significantly improved this year, but might not have the depth to win many meets. Kyle Higgins is a real talent (4:31 mile last spring) and could have a great XC season.


10. Milton - I'm pretty sure Kevin manning graduated, so I'm not sure who steps in to fill his shoes. Every year, though, Milton produces at least 1-2 strong runners, so they could be much stronger than I have them ranked.

11. Framingham - the Flyers lost Bay-State all-star Alex Chmielinski to graduation, and it doesn't appear they have anyone to replace him at the front of the pack. If they could only get some of their soccer players to make the switch...

12. Dedham - The Marauders might not have a great course, but they have very good coaches, just not a lot of bodies to work with. All they need is a nucleus, though, and maybe another great freshman like Rex Radloff, and they'd be in business.


In any case, I hope that ALL the teams in the league improve by leaps and bounds this year, and I look forward to great competition, and quite a few surprises.