Here were my predictions going into 2006, and how things actually turned out:
Pre-season Rank Record League meet
1. Newton 11-0 1
2. Weymouth 10-1 4
3. Wellesley 9-2 2
4. Natick 8-3 3
5. Milton 4-7 11
6. Brookline 7-4 5
7. Needham 6-5 6
8. Walpole 5-6 7
9. Framingham 3-8 10
10. Braintree 1-10 9
11. Norwood 2-9 8
12. Dedham 0-12 12
(I might have some of the team records incorrect. Please point out any errors and I will fix them.)
The two biggest surprises to me in 2006 were 1) the improvement over the course of the season by Norwood, and 2) the strength of the Brookline girls, who were undefeated through the first half of the season.
What does 2007 in have in store? Here's how I think the teams will do:
1. Wellesley - The Raiders return their top five, have a great mix of senior leadership and young talent, and are deep, deep, deep. They also have the best sports correspondent in the Bay State in Ali Griswold (what can I say... I'm a fan)
2. Newton North - I think the Tigers have the best chance to beat Wellesley, as they return 4 of the top 16 runners from the league meet (all juniors), including Carolyn Ranti, who had a break out season in outdoor track. They have other runners capable of joining the top four, but depth after the number five spot might be a problem.
3. Natick - It is very possible that Natick will take 1-2 at every meet this year, as they return the best 1-2 tandem in the league in Becca White and Anya Price (the top two finishers at last year's EMass Div II meet). Last year there was a pretty big gap after their top two, but if one or two more runners can close that gap, Natick will be a formidable team, and could certainly challenge Wellesley and Newton.
4. Weymouth - Led by rock-solid Kristin Mahoney, the Wildcats are still strong. Although they lost Nicole Pearce and Sam Sachetti to graduation, Mahoney and Carolyn Connolly give them strength up front, and Sarah McCarthy came on strong late last year.
5. Brookline - I feel a little uneasy ranking Brookline so low. They were good last year with freshman Emily Groopman making an immediate impact and Ilona Kats improving significantly. Although Sabrina Parise graduated, the Warriors could be even better this year. Weymouth vs. Brookline will be a good meet.
6. Needham - Emily Lipman (5th at the league meet, 16th at EMass Div II, and 33rd at the State meet) leads the Rockets. I don't think they quite have the depth to overttake Weymouth and Brookline, however.
7. Walpole - Sophomore Olivia Perry had a strong season last year, which culminated in a 22nd place finish at the Div II state championships. Perry is a league all-star for sure, and leads a Walpole program on the rise.
8. Norwood - The most improved team in the league last year. In (coach) Jim (Forrest) we trust.
9. Braintree - Liz Bellofatto leads the wamps.
10. Framingham - The Flyers will be very close to Braintree.
11. Milton - Probably don't have the numbers to move up from their place at last year's league meet, but freshmen can change everything.
12. Dedham - It's difficult to compete against much larger schools. Again, one or two good young runners can completely change the picture, especially with girls teams.
Ok, there we go. The first meets are less than 48 hours away. Excitement is at a fever pitch!
3 comments:
Good job as always Jon.
Just a couple things you might have missed:
Briantree is led by Erynn Sweeney and Kim Medieros and I think will be better than most give credit.
Framingham has a new BSC all star candidate in Camille Murphy, who has torn up summer 5K's around 19:40.
Natick, like NN, has 5 good runners, but will struggle if ANYONE in their top 5 go down.
Wellesley is very good, well-coached, and underrated. Scary!
Thanks for the additions/corrections. I forgot about Camille Murphy, and her presence could inspire Framingham to make a big move up the league ladder.
I also have a nagging feeling that Natick with five good runners might turn out to be an unstoppable force this year. I would love to see them make noise at the state level.
Marlis Gnirke on Wellesley is still recovering from an injury before the summer, and hasn't been running quite the same. However, losing practically no seniors and adding 3 freshmen to the top 5 (one ahead of Richardson) will make for a strong team.
Nice blog.
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