It's a big weekend in Mass., with the EMass, WMass, and Central Mass divisional championship meets. At stake is a berth in the All-State Championships in Gardner, Nov 17th.
After experiencing idyllic weather for most of the season, it looks like it could be nasty on Saturday, with much colder temperatures and rain (or snow) in the forecast. We'll see. It does seem likely that Franklin Park will have a chance to revert to its muddy self by the weekend.
So what will it take to make states? Assuming the course is running normally fast, it is likely that a Division 1 boys team that wants to go to Gardner will have to average better than 17 minutes, and score under 200 points. Except for 2004, when four inches of snow slowed times considerably, the 17-minute average has been a pretty good predictor of the top five teams. As for the 200 points, last year was an exception as Chelmsford scored 183 and finished 6th, but that was the first time in several years that a team has scored under 200 and not qualified.
So, which schools are likely to make it?
In Div 1, Brookline has been proving that it has the runners to dominate a race like this (they averaged 16:14 at the McIntyre meet on Oct 13), and assuming everyone is healthy, it's hard to see them finishing anywhere other than first. Other teams with a good shot to qualify for States include two Dual County League rivals, Lincoln-Sudbury and Newton South, MVC champion Chelmsford, and surprising Big Three champ New Bedford. Other teams worthy of consideration include Xaverian and St. John's Prep.
In Div 2, Whitman-Hanson and Mansfield will duke it out, with other hopeful including Needham, Reading, and Franklin.
In Div 3, the defending champ is Wellesley, but they will have their hands full this year. Bishop Feehan, Hingham, and Oliver Ames are very strong. Holliston is a threat, as is Hopkinton. If Wellesley or Walpole can run really well, they have a chance to qualify, but it will take a complete team effort since Div 3 seems to be very deep.
In Div 4, Swampscott seeks to defend its 2006 title and will be challenged by the same two teams that finished 2nd and 3rd last year -- Hamilton-Wenham and Seekonk. H-W's Gabe Pacione is the class of the field for the individual title, and a favorite for the D2 State title.
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8 comments:
Does somebody know something I don't (rhetorical)? The first question from anyone I've talked to this week is asking if we're healthy? I hope that's not a jinx. As long as Gibby doesn't hit his head fooling around or that there is a skateboard tragedy we should be good to go.
No jinx intended! I meant it as a blanket statement applying to all teams... nothing is a given, including good health, a dry course, etc...
Xaverian looks good: They have averaged under 17:00 minutes and are on a steady path of improvement.
You dont even believe Newton North is under consideration?
what about newton north
yeah..what do you think about NNHS possibly making the top 5?
If a team wants to make it to states, they need to average better than 17:00 (might be 10-15s slower on a muddy day) and score under 200 points. If the Newton North boys run to that level, they've got a shot.
I think NN definely has a shot of doing exactly that. It will take everyone's best efforts though. The NN team certainly has continued to improve over the last weeks of the season. Good luck.
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