This is a GREAT year for girls XC in Massachusetts! I can't ever remember there being so many really good, really deep teams in all divisions, and so many individuals worthy of notice at the statewide level. I'll focus on EMass, but it's only part of the statewide picture of depth and talent.
Division 1
Nothing is ever certain, but there are four teams in Div II that look very good for qualifying for the state meet. Lincoln-Sudbury is the top-ranked team in MA, and has such great speed and depth that its almost inconceivable that they won't advance as the #1 or #2 team. If any team can beat them, it might be Newton South, led by the ever-improving Madeleine Reed and Kelsey Karys, both of whom have run in the mid 18's at F.P this year. Haverhill and Chelmsford are both strong out of the MVC (Haverhill won the MVC league meet in impressive fashion).
Ah, but that fifth spot is up for grabs and teams like Billerica, Lexington, Newton North, and Weymouth are hoping their teams, and especially their fourth and fifth runners, have big days on Saturday. What will it take? It's mostly about getting all five runners in before the deluge that begins around 20:20-20:30. the fifth place team can probably survive having one runner above 20:30, but perhaps not two.
Division II
Div II might be deeper than Div I and competition for the five golden tickets will be extremely tight. The class of the class appears to be Beverly, which rocketed onto everyone's radar screen with a one-point win over Haverhill at the McIntyre meet on Oct. 13. Right behind (I'm talking about rankings here) is Whitman-Hanson, followed by Concord-Carlisle, Franklin, Westford Academy, and Masconomet. It's not out of the question that another team could sneak in -- for example, Dennis Yarmouth (last year's state champs!), Natick (with their terrific 1-2), or Central Catholic.
Division III
Bay Stater are waiting to see whether Wellesley can handle Bishop Feehan on the big stage. Wellesley has a team that seems designed to do well at big meets, and if their pack runs the way it has been all year, they have an excellent chance. But Feehan is always tough. Then there's Hingham, Hopkinton, Oliver Ames, Winchester... And Bay State fans should also watch Walpole, which has a chance to qualify.
Division IV
The top team hear is Hamilton-Wenham, which is led by one of the top runners in D2, Emily Lanois. But the best runner in the state so far has been Triton's Keely Maguire (winner over last year's Footlocker finalist Emily Jones at Brown). Triton has a chance to qualify, as does Newburyport, Swampscott, and perhaps Medfield.
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5 comments:
Jon,
I think it would be hard for any of these teams fighting for 5th to place 5 under 20:20-30, that seems a little extreme. I'd say 20:40-50 is where you want your 5th to be. Last year (and I know this isnt last year) we made all-states going 19:30, 19:40, 20:08, 21:10, 21:20.
Triton is D3 not D4
Natick ran DI at Bob McIntyre Invitational, are they moving back to DII for this?
Thanks for the correction on Triton
As for Natick, they run in EMass Div II (of four divisions), but at the state level they are D1 (of two divisions). In other words EMass D1 and D2 map to All-State D1, while EMass D3 and D4 map to All-State D2. Got it?
Would it be too audacious to say that Keely Maguire could take the course record on Saturday?
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