Hamlet in the 1500

And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprises of great pith and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry,
And lose the name of action.


Alan Webb finished fifth in the 1500m final at the U.S. trials last night, which means that the U.S. record holder in the mile and the owner of 2007's fastest 1500m time will not be representing his country in the Beijing Olympics. What happened?

Defending world champion Bernard Lagat won the race, running at or near the front for three and a half laps, and kicking it in for a time of 3:40.37. Lagat was followed across the line by Leonel Manzano and Lopez Lomong, two worthy competitors who both deserve to be on the team. Lomong, in particular, showed great fortitude in the race as he was bumped off-stride by Said Ahmed with a lap to go, and found himself in the third lane and in ninth place late in the race. he charged back into contention on the backstretch of the last lap, and held on for third. Manzano shadowed Lagat the entire race and was in perfect position to use his formidable kick with 200 to go.

Webb, on the other hand didn't seem to have a plan. At the gun, he half-sprinted the first 100m, ending up near the back of a thick clot of runners who were stumbling an pushing as the pace slowed to a crawl. Then, as Gabe Jennings took the lead and upped the tempo, Webb was caught in last place. With a little over two laps to go, Webb made a big move to improve his position from 12th to about 6th, but then held back again, unwilling to go to the front so early. And there he stayed, running almost the entire last 800m in the second lane.

With 300m to go, Webb still looked like he had a chance, poised in sixth as the kicking began in earnest. As Lomong threw caution to the winds and went into a full sprint at the top of the backstretch, Webb waited. As the pack entered the final turn, it was Lagat, Manzano, and Lomong. Webb's last 200 was fast, but not fast enough to overtake those three. The final indignity came when Webb was caught at the line by William Leer, meaning Webb isn't even an alternate for the team.

The mile (or 1500) seems unique among track events in requiring equal parts physical gifts, mental tenacity, and tactical savvy. Even great runners can be undone if they exercise poor judgment. Webb is a great runner, possessing rare physical gifts and a willingness to work very hard to hone them. But for whatever reason -- lack of confidence, uncertainty about his preparation, or simply poor tactics -- Webb let others dictate the race. I keep coming back to the idea that Webb was ahead of Lomong with 300 to go, in position to finish in the top three. But while Webb waited, Lomong went all-in, risking everything. He passed Webb and reached top speed by the end of the backstratch... and Webb never caught up.

Would a big move with 300 to go have worked for Webb? There's no guarantee. Maybe Webb was already cooked from his mid-race surge, or from a tough semi-final. Maybe he just didn't have the strength yesterday. There's no certainty here. But it does seem as though Webb is his own toughest competitor, as he continues to run championship races without a clear plan of what he needs to do to succeed.