Preview: Newton North v. Weymouth

Indoor Track's Carey Division Title will be decided on Thursday, as Newton North faces Weymouth in the fourth meet of the season for both schools. Is it too late for a preview?

On the boys side, Newton North is the clear favorite, but the Tigers will not be complacent, and will be convinced that they must claw for every point to come out ahead of the Wildcats. On the girls side, I've said it all before but the two teams are separated by a few centimeters, a few hundredths of a second here and there. However, Sunday's State Relays suggests that Newton North might have a tiny bit more margin for error.

I expect the boys meet to start close, but not end that way. I expect the girls meet to start close and end closer.


Boys Preview

Weymouth's strengths: long sprints, middle distances

NN's strengths: no weak events, dominant shot put team

Weymouth has several fine athletes, but it's hard to see how they can overcome North's depth. To begin with, North likely sweeps the shot put and goes 1-2 in the high jump. Even if Tyler Mulcahy can win the long jump for the Wildcats, that still leaves them with a 21-6 deficit in the field events, hard to make up against the Tiger's deep team.

Before the field events play out, there could be some great match-ups in the first several track races: Sollowin vs. Lichtman in the mile (edge to Sollowin); Keefe vs. Parsley in the 1000 (edge to Keefe), Stuart vs. Penn in the 600 (Penn looks very strong, especially after his 49-high split on Sunday).

The problem for Weymouth is that Sollowin can only run one event. If he's in the mile, Dan Ranti should have no problem winning the deuce. Meanwhile, in the sprint, Mulcahy might well win the hurdles, but I think Ryan Lucken wins the 300 and North takes the 55 dash.

Not that it will matter by then, but North also has the better relay team, capable of running close to 3:30 if needed.

Girls Preview

Weymouth's strengths: distance events, shot put, long jump, will contest every event

NN's strengths: sprints, long sprints, hurdles, both jumps, overall depth

As the meet begins, Weymouth will have a lot of options for deploying their excellent distance runners. Assuming that everyone is healthy, I'll speculate that the Wildcats go with Jill Corcoran in the mile, Morgan Fitzgibbon and Allison Brady in the 1000, and Julie Tevenen and Vanessa Murphy in the 2-mile. I honestly have no idea where Bridget Jaklitsch will run, but she could win or place in any event form the 600 to the 2-mile. NN's main decision is where to run Margo Gillis. It seems like she would be most comfortable and effective in the 1000 or 600, so I'll speculate she runs the 1000 and comes back for the 4x400 relay. Meghan Bellerose has the league's second-fastest time in the 600 and probably runs there.

In any case, Weymouth has the clear advantage in the three longest races. I'll predict they outscore North 18-9 in the 1M, 1000, and 2M.

In the sprints, the situation is reversed. It's not that Weymouth is weak -- far from it -- it's that Newton is really strong, with Carla Forbes and Madi Nadeau, Steph Brown, Kayla Wong, etc. Forbes and Nadeau should go 1-2 in the 300. Forbes wins again in the 55, but let's give Melissa Darling 2nd place. The hurdles might be closer than people expect, but I see North going 1-3 there as well. That's a 20-7 edge for the Tigers, but these could be very close races and hundredths of a second will matter.

As for the 600, that could be a battle between Meghan Bellerose and Jenn Kimball, with little to choose between them. I'll give NN an uneasy 5 points here.

In the field events, Weymouth is much stronger in the shot put. While it's a stretch, I'm going to say they sweep there. If they don't, well that's a problem for them because North has the ability to go 1-2 or even sweep the high jump. However, I thought the same thing last year and Emily Clark proved me wrong and won the event outright, so nothing is certain in this event. I'll say NN earns 8 points, but this is definitely an event to watch closely.

Although Carla Forbes should win, the battle for 2nd and 3rd in the long jump should be one of the best competitions of the night. On Sunday, Weymouth's three jumpers won the DI State Relays title. I'll say 5-4 for North in this event.

Adding it all up, that would leave the score 47-43 in favor of North going into the relay, where North has been extremely strong.

What Weymouth needs to win the meet is to upset the above predictions in one or two events, and perform up to expectations in all the others. The field events will be huge, and if Weymouth can win those decisively they can certainly win the meet. But if North takes care of business in the HJ and LJ, it's hard to see how Weymouth will amass enough points elsewhere to not have it come down to the relay.

Anyway, as always it will be one of the best meets of the year. Good luck to ALL competitors and their coaches. It should be a blast!