Over the past eight years, at least, no team scoring under 200 points has failed to qualify for All-States. Teams have scored 202 points and failed to make it, and have scored as high as 268 and still qualified, but the fact remains: if a team has been under 200, it has made the cut.
As for the number 70, it turns out that 70 is a similar (although not as ironclad) threshold for the position of a team's 5th runner. Over the last eight years, 90% of the teams whose fifth runner finished 70th or better have qualified for the state meet. Only four teams in eight years have had a fifth man finish worse than 70th and still qualify.* If you want to go to Northfield, make sure your fifth runner doesn't slip into the "dead zone" above 70th place.
* edited: Nov-10-06
Division I
Brookline enters the EMass meet as the number #1 ranked team in the state and the deserved favorite after dominating the Bay State League and running well at several invitationals (Manchester, Brown). Unlike their chief rivals, they have at least six strong runners capable of running sub 17:00. They are led by BSC champion Robert Gibson, who (I believe) is ready to join the elite of the state on Saturday. I expect him to be no worse than top five, and possibly top three.
The mystery team in Div I is Brockton, whom many picked to repeat as state champions this year. Brockton has the returning All-State runner-up and 2006 outdoor mile champion Kevin Gill leading them, and at least three other very good runners, but so far this year they have been unable to find a fifth man. It is not inconceivable that they have one waiting in the wings, to be unveiled on Saturday, in which case we'll all say: "how could we have underestimated Brockton?" If they don't have that guy, Gill might win, but they won't have much of a chance against a team as deep as Brookline.
Other potential qualifiers include Xaverian, led by 2005 State champion Mark Amirault. Xaverian has been hampered by injuries to their two best runners, Amirault and Dan Higgins, but have a strong team even with them running at 80%. Three teams from the Merrimack Valley Conference will contend for the top five: Methuen, Haverhill, and Chelmsford. Haverhill has title contender Pat Fullerton, but has a big gap back to their 4th and 5th. Methuen seemed out of it at the beginning of the year but has grown stronger with each passing week, and two weeks ago won the MVC league championship, which is an excellent sign they are ready for EMass. Chelmsford is very solid also, although perhaps not as fast up fron as in previous years.
Other teams who can't be ignored include the sophomore-laden Newton South team (DCL champions WITHOUT their senior captain Sam Donovan), Peabody, St. John's Prep (slowly rebuilding after years of dominance followed by two down years), Lincoln-Sudbury, and perhaps even BSC teams Weymouth and Newton North.
Not just because of my hometown bias, I think Newton North is an intriguing team for this kind of meet. With Seb Putzys finally healthy, they have at least one runner who should be in the top 25, followed by a very tight pack from 2-5. If that pack could all be under 17:30, the team would score very, very well. Would it be enough to qualify for states? That's very unlikely, but not impossible. The main thing is to get experience running in a big meet, keeping the pack close together, and realize that almost five of the top seven are coming back next year.
Div I Predictions:
Winning time: 15:35
# of runners under 16:00: 4
# of runners under 17:00: 33
70th place time: 17:22
Winning team score: 75
Division II
Div II is definitely not an afterthought this year, as there are at least three very strong teams and several very good individuals. The top teams are Mansfield (led by last year's fifth finisher at All-States Ryan Collins), Gloucester, and Whitman-Hanson. Others to watch include Concord-Carlisle and BSC runner-up Needham.
Needham's Sam Miller finally gets a chance to show what he can do in a big meet, and the Needham team should enjoy the chance to step outside the narrow world of the BSC. Like everyone else, their fortunes will rise or fall on the fate of their 4th and 5th men. Good luck to them!
(Besides Needham, the other BSC teams in Div II is Natick.)
Collins is the favorite to win the race and will be one of the top runners in the state again this year. Other individuals to watch include Gloucester's Peter Asaro and Liam Murphy (he of the fantastic finishing kick), and L-S's Jimmy Tyrell.
Division III
Last year's Div III champion team was Wellesley, and they will try to defend the title against the likes of Bishop Feehan, Duxbury, Hopkinton, and Pentucket. I don't know much about any of these teams, although the MSTCA ranks Pentucket as the top Div III team in Emass.
In case you want to root for other BSC teams in Div III, Milton, Norwood, and Walpole are also in this division.
Division IV
As in the girls Div IV race, the favorite in the boys race is Hamilton-Wenham, led by Gabe Pacione (16:12 for 5K to win his league championship).
Other teams to watch inlcude Hopedale, Marblehead.
The only BSC team in Div IV is Dedham.
4 comments:
1- Hopedale is Central MA
2- Medfield is no worse than 3rd in DIII and Holliston should challenge for 5th
Thanks for the correction on Hopedale.
Thanks for the info on Medfield and Holliston. Any other additional insights for the other divisions?
What do you think of Needham's chances in Div II?
The BSC is weak on the boys side. I'm thinking only Brookline will be going to Northfield.
Norwood is div 2
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