On Saturday, Franklin Park hosts the EMass Cross-Country Divisional Championships, also known as the Class Meet (from the time when Divisions I-IV were known as Classes A-D). The EMass meet is the qualifier for the All-State Championships, to be held at Northfield on November 18. Five seven-person teams from each division qualify, along with the top ten placing 10 individuals who are not on a qualifying team.
Newton North is in Div. I, along with the following other Bay State schools: Braintree, Brookline, Framingham, and Weymouth.
Th weather forecast is very good for Saturday, with temperatures expected to be around 60 and no rain. I expect times on the Franklin Park course to be very fast.
As for team competition, the favorite for the Girls Div I race is Lincoln-Sudbury. They are undefeated in competition against Mass. teams this year, having won the Amherst Invite, the Franklin Park Invite, the Bay State Invite (at Northfield), and the Dual-County League Championship. They have a very talented front runner in Dana Jamieson (18:42 at the Brown Invitational) and their team is incredibly deep, with over a dozen runners under 21 minutes for 5K.
After Lincoln-Sudbury, things get very interesting. Haverhill looked very impressive recently winning the Merrimack Valley League meet with five girls under 20:46. That's without their top runner, Colleen McNaughton, who has had knee problems this year and might not compete. If she does and is able to run to form, Haverhill is the favorite for the runner-up spot; if not, they are still a very good bet to be in the top three. Newton North has defending EMass Div I champion Jess Barton, and a strong pack of five other runners who should be under 21:00. That depth puts them in good shape in their first big meet of the season.
Assuming those thre teams qualify (never a sure thing at a meet like this), there are thre other strong teams vying for the two remaining tickets to the All-State meet. Weymouth has two outstanding runners (Kristen Mahoney and Nicole Pearce) who should be in the top ten, and a strong 3-4 in Sam Sachetti and Carolyn Connolly. MVC runner-up Chelmsford has no front-of-the-pack runner, but does have four girls in the mid 20:00's. DCL runner-up Newton South has front-runner Kelsey Karys and is always dangerous in big meets. With each of these three teams, the question will be how does their fifth runner perform? In a big meet, the fifth runner is the most important, and these teams will be looking to have their fifth runners as close to 21 minutes as possible to avoid being stuck behind the hoardes of mid-pack runners.
Other individuals of note: In addition to Jamieson and Barton, Boston Latin senior Caroline O'Laughlin is one of the favorites, having run second to Barton in last year's EMass meet (18:57), and having recently finished second to Jamieson at the DCL Championships. Billerica's Sydney Fitzpatrick won the MVC meet and should be among the leaders. Newton South's Karys deserves consideration, although she has not been quite up to the form of last year when she finished third in EMass (19:04) and fourth in the state (19:01) as a freshman.
Others who are definitely candidates for the top fifteen, if not higher include Weymouth's Mahoney and Pearce, Newton North's Carolyn Ranti and Haleigh Smith, Newton South's Nina Slote, Lincoln-Sudbury's Barbara MacNeill, Rachel Potter, and hannah Ziobrowsky, Barnstable's Jill Lyon, Brookline's Emily Groopman and Sabrina Parise, Lowell's Amanda Leahy, Andover's Maggie Cosgrove, and probably others that I've neglected or forgotten.
Results over the past decade suggest that it's rare for more than 15 girls to be under 20:00 minutes at Franklin Park in the Div I race, but this year could be an exception, as it seems that the field will be exceptionally deep.
Div I Predictions
Winning time: 18:28
# of girls uner 20:00: 16
# of girls under 21:00: 48
Winning team: Lincoln-Sudbury
Winning score: 85 points
Other Divisions (poorly researched)
In Div. II, Marshfield and Dennis Yarmouth should battle for the top spot. If Colleen Weatherbee runs, which seems doubtful due to recent surgery, D-Y wins convincingly. Even without her, they are formidable. D-Y's "other" top runner Brooke Fallon should contend for the title, along with Natick's Becca White.
Other teams to watch include Concord Carlisle, Franklin, Natick, Westford Academy, and Whitman-Hanson.
In Div III, top individual looks to be Triton's Keely McGuire. Top teams include Oliver Ames, Bishop Feehan, Wellesley, and Hopkinton. It will be interesting to see how the Wellesley girls do after a strong dual meet season.
In Div IV, Hamilton-Wenham, led by 2006 Bay State champ Emily Lanois, should dominate.
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5 comments:
John, dont forget the D2 team that will likely win if Weatherbee doesnt run, Marshfield.
i'll be honest when i say i'm rooting for D-Y this week in D-2, but certainly not next week... as an alumni, it's hard for me to root against them unless they are running head-to-head against our girls.
Go dolphins!
-MO
Winchester is way underrated as they never had all their top 5 race an Invy. Look for them to challenge Wellesley and Hopkinton for 3rd.
I'm not sold on Wellesley with only one possible runner under 20:00 and the 4-5 possibly over 21:00.
I think Wellesley could be underestimated. They seemed to be running for this meet (although I may be misreading that)all season. Richardson should go sub-20, as could Lukes and Gnirke. They have alot of solid kids after that, all seven I think are sub-21.
doh !
Richardson 30:00+ hurt
Gnirke and Lukes 21:20+
rest of their pack averaged over 22:00
We'll see how their decision to run no invites plays out at Northfield but I don't think they were laying low at D3s.
"I think Wellesley could be underestimated. They seemed to be running for this meet. Richardson should go sub-20, as could Lukes and Gnirke. They have alot of solid kids after that, all seven I think are sub-21."
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