- Brookline's quest for the Div I team championship - will Robert Gibson (who, according to Brookline's coach, suffered a concussion earlier this week) be able to run? Will the team be able to win without him?
- Will Brockton find a 5th man at the last moment and pull off an upset in Div I?
- What about Ludlow? At one point they were ranked #1 in the State, and were running very well in September. What shape are they in now?
- What about St. John's Shrewsbury, which dominated the CMass meet?
- In girls Div I, Lincoln-Sudbury looked unbeatable earlier this season, but a sub-par performance (although good enough to win) at EMass has raised questions about whether they are vulnerable at Northfield.
- Is Dennis-Yarmouth the team to beat? After winning the Amherst Invitational, the State's best middle distance runner Colleen Wetherbee had surgery for Compartment Syndrome. She returned for the EMass meet and finished 9th in Div II after only a week of running. She'll be twice as prepared for Northfield, and D-Y looks very, very dangerous.
- What about Amherst? They have been improving steadily throughout the year, and won the WMass meet easily. They also are very familiar with the Northfield course and usually run very well at the State meet.
- In Div II boys, there doesn't seem to be an overwhleming favorite, although Hopedale looked very good in winning CMass and are certainly a threat to defend their 2005 title. Wellesley and Swampscott will be up there, and WMass champs Mt. Greylock should also contend.
- In Div II girls, Bromfield is the clear favorite, although Hamilton-Wenham ran very well at EMass and might get close to the Killer "B's".
In Division II girls, Emily Jones will win by plenty. Any other result would be a huge shock.
In Div II boys, Jeff Hill of Blackstone-Millville is the favorite, with Marian's Pat McAllister and Hamilton-Wenham's Gabe Pacione likely to be strong challengers.
And then there is Div I. The individual race for the Div I title has been the subject of intense debate since the beginning of the season, with many believing that it would be a two-man race between defending XC champ and 2005 State 2-Mile champ Mark Amirault (Xaverian), and defending runner-up and 2005 State 1-mile champ Kevin Gill (Brockton). At EMass, it was Gill leading Amirault until about 200m to go, when Amirault (15:47) went to another gear and put six seconds on his rival. It was a dominating performance, made even more impressive because Amirault has had only limited training in the last month due to a knee injury.
But more impressive still, in EMass Div II Mansfield's Ryan Collins outdid both Gill and Amirault, running alone after the halfway mark to a PR 15:36 -- the fastest HS time at Franklin Park this year. Can Collins beat Amirault at Northfield? For that matter, can Gill beat them both? I have not forgotten 2003, when Chris Barnicle beat Keith Gill at EMass with a big kick and then faltered at Northfield, losing to the elder Gill by a second.
And then again, there is Pittsfield's Zack Gordon who is very capable of running with the big boys.
I like Collins for the win. I think he is just an unbelievably tough and smart runner who won't wait around for it to come down to a final kick. I think he will be in the lead after a mile, and won't relinquish it. If Amirault can stay with Collins to the end, that's a truly amazing performance from a guy who hasn't been able to prepare the way he would like. And if Gill can beat them both, it will be a testament to his determination to never settle for second behind Amirault or anyone else.
Some predictions for Div I boys race:
Winning time: 16:05
# of runners under 17 minutes: 15
Winning team score: 108
Winning team: Brookline (if Gibson runs) or Ludlow (if Gibson is out)
6 comments:
Ham Wen girls are the class of a very weak D4 but aren't that close to Bishop Feehan and in a merged D3 and D4 race would've been 4th behind Feehan, Hopkinton and Oliver Ames. Here's betting a team or two from the west (MtG +/or HolyCatholic) gets in ahead of them as well
Just a minor correction: Amirault ran 15:30 at Franklin Park in the Boston Invitational.
Jon, how do you think the race will play-out for the top three in D1 boys in terms of strategy. Do you see anyone attacking the mountain early-on (Gras-style) and pulling away, forcing the others to catch-up later, or do you think it will be a trio until the 'substantial bump', afterwhich they'll battle it out on the flatlands?? If it it's a trio until the end, I think Amirault, Gill, Collins, but Gill ahead of Collins because I don't know much of Collins' kick, if any. Collins seems like the kinda guy who'd take it with a mile to go as opposed to waiting for the final 200m like Amirault at EMass.
Expect Collins to push the pace early and try to gap the field.
(Thanks for the correction on Amirault's time.)
If the race is among Amirault, Gill, and Collins, it's pretty obvious that Collins has the least impressive kick. I admit, it's hard to imagine anyone in MA gapping Amirault, but if it's going to happen anywhere, it will be at Northfield. I think Collins has to choose between trying to make the pace hard from early on, maybe even from the start, or kick with 700-800 to go and hope that he can get away on the last short uphill. I think the presence of Gill in the race helps Collins because Gill can and will keep the pace as fast as possible.
If I were Collins, I wouldn't try to break away early. I think one sustained move from half a mile out is more likely to succeed than trying to run away early. I think Collins will have only one chance to break away. Timing is everything.
Good call, anonymous #4.
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