Newton North competes against Brookline on Thursday, and I can't help thinking about last year's thrilling meet between the two schools. On the boys side, it was one of the best dual meets I've ever seen, where every event was important and contested, and it all came down to the relay. If anyone else is feeling nostalgic, here are links to the results from that meet, and my post after it was all over:
Bay State Meet Results - Jan 17, 2008
Tigers Edge Warriors 44-42 in Epic Meet
So much has changed in a year, with the graduation of many of the key athletes from that meet, and the emergence of a new generation of point-scorers. Unlike last year, when Brookline seemed to have the edge going in to the meet, this year Newton North looks better on paper, but that means very little when the meet gets underway.
Here's an event-by-event preview, comparing the two teams:
1M - Who will run the mile? I gotta believe that Dan Hamilton will run the 2M, his specialty, and that Newton will be represented by Dan Ranti here. Brookline could run a number of folks, perhaps freshman Chernet Sisay? I think they'll keep Hardiman in the 1000 and Grove in the 2M. Sampson? Sam Pratt-Otto? I'll score this 5-4, Newton, because basically I have no idea how it will turn out.
1000 - Ezra Lichtmann continues to improve with every race, but then, so does Brookline senior Ryan Hardiman. I'll give the edge to Brookline here, and guess that they have another runner who can grab 3rd ahead of Justin Keefe. 6-3, Brookline.
600 - Sandler vs. Fulwiler should be a great race, but I'll give the edge to the Brookline senior. 5-4, Brookline.
300 - Miller has run 37.96, Ben Kiley 38.11. This race could go either way, but I expect Newton to pick up 3rd place. Score it 5-4, Brookline.
2M - It's gotta be Hamilton vs. Grove here, and although I would love to see Dan win, I think Grove -- who ran the second-most-impressive one-shoe effort I've ever seen in the 2008 XC All-State meet, will prevail. Brookline will take third (Lang Pratt-Otto?) Score it 6-3, Brookline.
55 hurdles - Parent will step up, but Arsenault and Chen are much better than last year. 8-1, Newton.
55 dash - Ben Kiley gets the win here, with Parent 2nd, and Troy Peterson 3rd. 6-3, Newton.
HJ - There will be no repeat of last year's bizarre series of events in which the official adjusted the standards between Alex Lippincott's 2nd and 3rd jumps at 6-4. Arsenault wins, with Kiley 3rd. 6-3, Newton.
SP - Even without a 50-footer, Newton has depth here, and unless Joel Parent can "pull a Bennett" and PR by several feet, Newton will sweep, 9-0.
4x400 - I never bet against Newton in a relay, and besides, they have the fastest time in the league this year. 5-0, Newton.
So there you have it. Totaling the projected scores it's 55-33, Newton, and somehow I think Brookline will find ways to make it closer. Could they turn the tables? Oh yes, yes indeed. We'll have to wait for the meet to see...
Good luck to both teams!
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6 comments:
Jon,
I like your predictions. I would say though that a 14-13 score in the distances seems unlikely. I think Brookline will win all 3 and take all 3 thirds (Hardiman, Sisay, Grove FTW and Pratt-Ottos and Sampson). I also think Parent will take 2nd in the hurdles. That would get the meet to the relay, but North should put it away there.
Greg Cohan's also running the mile, and could potentially take first. I'd pick Parent over Chen in the hurdles. Neil's also only run the 600 two times, and is getting better, so that will be a nice race to watch. There is also the 55 dash, where I think that North can take both 1st and 2nd.
No love for TC Baby. he ran 8.05 this weeklend and is fast improving. Jon may have it right.
Remember the 8.05 was in spikes, so he might struggle to make that in a dual. Also, Parent ran 7.96 at artmouth in the semis, so he's not that far off Arsenault.
"Remember the 8.05 was in spikes, so he might struggle to make that in a dual"
... what?
You can't wear spikes during dual meets at Reggie. Sorry I thought that went without saying...
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