NN vs. Weymouth Thursday for the Carey Title(s)

Two very good girls team will compete for the Bay State Carey Division crown on Thursday.

In this corner, Newton North, well-balanced and without an obvious weakness. The Tigers are led by a handful of upperclasswomen, but buoyed by a rising tide of talented freshmen and sophomores.

And in the opposite corner, Weymouth, a well-balanced team without an obvious weakness. The Wildcats are led by a handful of upperclasswomen, but buoyed by... um... wait a minute...

Yes, like an old married couple, Newton North and Weymouth have come to resemble each other more and more over the past few years. They're not identical, of course, Weymouth holds an edge in the long sprints (and 4x400), while Newton gets the nod in the hurdles and high jump. Otherwise, there's an eerie balance between the two teams that should make for an exciting meet in which the outcome depends on hard-earned third places, as well as epoch battles for wins.

Brookline coach Mike Glennon has already written a thorough preview of the meet, but I can't resist adding a few observations:

Last year's meet was expected to be close, but Weymouth turned it into a rout by winning just about every close race and dominating the sprints. Perhaps the low point of that meet for Newton North was the 300, in which the Tigers used their two best runners (Carolyn Ranti and Michelle Kaufmann) and scored 1 point. That won't happen again, I think.

As I try to handicap the races, I find myself starting from the end and working backward. I'd be willing to bet my Reggie Lewis Center photo ID that Weymouth will win the relay. The Weymouthites are too strong in the 300-600 events, and I don't see how Newton can afford to save Ranti for that race. On the straightaway, Kaufman is the favorite to win both the 55 and 55 hurdles, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say Newton takes 2nd in the hurdles as well. In the high jump, I'm projecting Newton goes 1-2. In the shot put, Weymouth goes 1-3.

If those predictions are right, then Newton outscores Weymouth 24-17 at the back end of the meet. What will happen on the oval in the 1M, 2M, 1000, 600, and 300?

The mile should be a great race with Ranti and Corcoran battling it out for the win, and third place up for grabs. Let's say 5-4 Weymouth. The 1000 goes to Weymouth's Carolyn Connolly, but Newton takes 2nd and 3rd; 5-4 Weymouth.

Weymouth dominates the 600, with Sam Bennett and Melissa Kimball taking 1st and 2nd over Emma Kornetsky for an 8-1 advantage. In the 300, Ranti doubles back but has her hands full with Jenn Bell and Kayla Sullivan, score it 8-1, Weymouth.

Now if everything I've said so far happens exactly this way -- which is, of course, highly unlikely -- Weymouth will have earned 43 points, minus any points from the 2M. that means Newton would have to sweep the 2M to tie. If Margo Gillis runs, she should win easily, but the other places are not so secure.

On the other hand, if the Tigers can get a 2nd place in either the 600 or 300, well everything's different then.

Anyway, it's all just speculation. It should be a fun meet, and the competition should bring out many season's best performances. Good luck to both teams!

And What About the Boys?

The boys meet will also be very close, as Weymouth is a complete team with some legitimate stars. Coach Glennon is picking Weymouth to win and end NN's decade-long streak of dual meet victories.

I'm not so sure... here's how it looks to me:

1M - Weymouth has the advantage with Sean Galligan, but it's a mighty thin advantage, and North's milers haven't run their best yet. I'll say 6-3, Newton, and watch out for Greg Cohan.

1000 - Sallowin wins easily, 5-4 Weymouth.

600- Dooley wins, with Fulwiler 2nd, 6-3 Weymouth.

300 - Bean wins in a photo finish! Kiley 2nd, Isaiah Penn 3rd, 5-4 Weymouth.

2M - Dan Hamilton wins, 6-3 Newton.

55H - Arsenault, with Tony Chen a very close 3rd behind Gurney, 6-3 Newton

55 - Weymouth's David Bean wins, with Newton taking 2nd and 3rd, 5-4 Weymouth.

HJ - Arsenault and Kiley go 1-2, killing Weymouth's chances. 8-1 Newton.

SP - I have no idea who it will be this week, but Newton the Tigers will take 1st and 3rd, 6-3 Newton.

If it all happens thus, the relay would be moot. We can't have that! So maybe Weymouth will find more points in the HJ and shot put, or nab a 3rd in the 1000 or 300... Well, I hope they do. In fact, I hope both teams raise their games to the highest level of the season. I've been picking Weymouth as the top contender all season, and it should be a great competition.

Good luck to both teams!