Here's your form chart for the The MIAA Girls DI Indoor Track Championships.
(Corrected with 8-deep scoring - 2/18/11)
To repeat myself, a form chart is not a prediction; it's a summary of how many points each school would get if the results of each event were the same as the seeding performances. There are impossibilities and improbabilities galore in these numbers, but on average they do indicate the strongest teams.
1. Newton North 69.7 points (55H - 6; 55 - 8; 300 -2; 600 - 4; 1000 - 1; HJ - 9.7; LJ - 23!!; 4x2 - 10; 4x4 - 6)
I won't waffle. Newton North is the favorite. They have Carla Forbes, a veteran sophomore and defending state champion who is the odds-on favorite in the LJ and the second seed (by 0.02) in the 55. They have four high jumpers in the competition, with Lucia Grigoli at 5-4. They have Kayla Wong in the hurdles and LJ, They have two strong relay teams. And the total reflects only a single individual point from Margo Gillis, who is seeded 8th in the 1000m.
It's not that L-S and Andover aren't strong. They are great teams, too, and anything could happen, but only Newton North can have things go wrong (for example, under-performing in the jumps, messing up a relay) and still have a good chance to win.
2. Lincoln-Sudbury 61.3 points (55H - 5; 600 - 3; 1000 - 16!; 1M - 6; 2M - 3; HJ - 6.3; LJ - 3; 4x2 - 5; 4x8 - 4; 4x4 - 10)
L-S has potential scorers in 7-8 individual events and all the relays. They have Andrea Keklak entered in the 1000m and 2-mile, and she could win both events (she'll certainly be better than 6th in the 2M). They have upside in the LJ, but will have a tough time getting those 16 points in the 1000. If Keklak doubles in the 1000-2M, she's not available for a relay and that will hurt their chances big time. All-in-all, I think they're projected point total will be about what they can get.
3. Andover 54.3 points (55H - 1; 300 - 11; 600 - 1; 2M - 10; HJ - 16.3!; LJ - 1; 4x2 - 6; 4x4 - 8)
This is a team with big stars Moria Cronin (defending state champ in the high jump) and Maggie Mullins (top seed in the 2M), and typically strong relays). Although the projected scores don't show it, they are pretty deep, with quite a few athletes capable of cracking the top eight.
But there's not much upside from the stars, and that probably keeps them around 55 points, which might not be enough.
4. Wachusett 36.7 points
5. Franklin 28 points
6. Weymouth 25 points
I see a pretty significant gap between the top three teams and the rest of the field. Teams like Wachusett, Franklin, and Weymouth have a lot of athletes qualified, so if one of those teams has a great day they might rise to top of the chase pack, but I just don't see any of them catching NN, L-S, or Andover.
Anything can happen, though, especially in the jumps. Newton and Andover need lots of points from the jumps. If it doesn't happen, it opens the door for L-S and possibly other teams.
2 comments:
Jon,
It appears you are using the old scoring system of 10-8-6-4-2-1.... just so you know, we went to an 8 place system of 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1 this winter, which does change some of the point values.
Thanks for the correction.
I looked carefully at the Indoor Track Format and found nothing about scoring for the divisional meets, and a note about the expanded scoring for the state meet. Hence, I assumed the class meet scoring was the same as always.
By the way, that tournament format document has gotten a little out of control...
If I have time, I'll recalculate the values
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