2011 Indoor State Meet Preview - Girls

Performance lists aren't predictions, and anything can happen. But here's a quick tour through the girls performance lists for the 2011 Indoor State Meet:

Mansfield - 37.3

Mansfield is a great team with many strong athletes and deserves to be the favorite in the state meet, but their projected top position is very precarious. ALL of their projected points come in events that are notoriously volatile -- the 55, 55 hurdles, 300, high jump, and 4x200 -- you couldn't come up with a list of events more likely to cause a coach to bite their nails down to the quick. Well, I suppose you could add the long jump to that list, but watching Carla Forbes tends to make you forget how difficult and unpredictable it is...

Newton North - 32

The Tigers will be in the unfamiliar position on being the underdog, at least on paper, for the first time this season. Their "safe" points (nothing is ever safe in track) are in the long jump and 4x400 relay. The remainder of their projected points come from the 55 and 1000, where Carla Forbes and Margo Gillis will be battling deep fields. Those points might not be easy to get, but there is a great chance for North to find other points in the 600 (Meghan Bellerose - seeded 9th), the high jump (three jumpers at 5-1), the long jump (Both Amy Ren's and Kayla Prior's PBs would put them in the top eight), and the 4x200 (seeded 9th).

Lincoln-Sudbury - 30

Andrea Keklak is one of the most impressive athletes at the meet, and having her gives L-S a great chance to win the 1000 and 4x800. But even if Marika Crowe can take 2nd in the 1000, it's hard to see where L-S will get more points than their projected 30. However, if Mansfield and Newton North have any mishaps, 30 points might be enough to win.

Franklin - 29

Like L-S, Franklin has the top seed in two events. Megan Ross was very impressive winning the D1 2M, and Kendal Knous is 1.5 seconds better than anyone else in the 600. Their other points come from the 1000 and the 4x800, both of which will be tough challenges. On the other hand, all the teams in front of them have tough challenges, too, so Franklin is a definite contender for the title.

Andover - 24

Don't be fooled by Andover's projected point total. It's low because it doesn't account for any points from Moira Cronin in the high jump. If Cronin has a good meet and Jess Salley matches last week's performance, Andover could score 16-18 points in the high jump and be right back in business.

Also, Maggie Mullins is seeded only fourth in the 2M after a sub-par race at D1, but is capable of doing much better at the state meet. Add the 300, where anything could happen, and the 4x400, where Andover is in the mix for one of the top three spots and it's not inconceivable that Andover could score in the mid-30s for this meet.

The Rest

Pembroke, Newton South, Wachusett, and Weymouth look to be the teams with significant upside. Arlington has Rebecca Robinson, the top seed in the 55 and 300, but that's about it.