February 17, 2011

2011 D1 Indoor Preview - Boys

The MIAA DI Indoor Track Championships kick off on Friday night at 4:30 at the RLTAC, and for your reading pleasure, here's a form chart for the boys competition.

A form chart is not a prediction; it's a summary of how many points each school would get if the results of each event were the same as the seeding performances. And even though it doesn't take into account seeds that are misleading, it turns out to be a pretty good way of focusing attention on the teams most likely to contend for the title.

A major new wrinkle to the process this year is that distance all runners are allowed to compete in two longer running events if they choose. There are certainly some athletes good enough to score in two distance events, but others are probably entered in two events but will scratch from one, depending on which event gives them the better chance to score points for the team.

Ok, without further ado, here are the top teams based on seeding performances:

1. New Bedford 37 points (55 - 10; LJ - 17; 4x200 - 10)

NB's Phito Gondre is seeded first in the 55 (6.46) and LJ (22-4). If Ricky Williams and Justin Callendar have a good night at the LJ pit, and if they can hang on to the baton in the 4x200, New Bedford has a great chance to win with only four athletes.

2. Newton North 36 points (300 - 10; 1000 - 10; SP - 10; 4x200 - 6)

The only team with three individuals seeded #1, North is also a bit deeper than NB, with chances for other points from the SP, HJ, and 1000. Obviously, it will be key for Isaiah Penn, Ezra Lichtman, and Swardick Mayanja to win or place in their respective events, plus big points from the relays. It seems like they will have to choose between stacking their 4x200 or 4x400, and the seeds suggest it will be the 4x200.

3. Acton-Boxboro 33 points (55H - 1; 300 - 6; 600 - 6; 1000 - 8; 4x4 - 8; 4x8 - 4)

A scary deep team with lots of upside. They need big nights from Brian Sommers (300), Alex Durkee (600), and Curt Owen (1000), and it would help their cause if they can get a top three place in the uber-competitive 4x800.

4. Andover 31 points (300 - 8; 1000 - 2; 1M - 7; 4x2 - 4; 4x4 - 2; 4x8 - 8)

Another deep team with upside, especially in the 1M (Simon Voorhees, 4:21.94, Will Osoff, 4:27.47). Can they field three competitive relays? Most likely only two, but that might be enough to win.

5. BC High 24 points

6. Attleboro 23.25 points

7. St. John Prep 22.25 points

8 Lawrence 20.63 points

9 Somerville - 20 points

It's not inconceivable that one of the 5-9 teams could emerge from the pack and take one of the top two trophies. In my opinion, the team best positioned for such an upset is St. John's, which has potential scorers in four events plus the 4x200 relay. BC High has 6-9 high jumper Nick Staley, 21-5 long jumper Yosa Nosamiefan, and the third-seeded 4x800 team, but I doubt that's enough.

So, in summary, it looks like at least four teams will still have a chance to win going into the relays. It should be a great meet!

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Not just distance runners, but ALL can do two running events.

Jon Waldron said...

Thanks. Corrected.

Anonymous said...

Jon, will you be doing a girls' preview?

seeherman said...

37 points is a really low score for winning the whole meet . . . . almost historically low. . . . looks like some real parity in DI.

Jon Waldron said...

I'll have a girls preview out early this evening.